Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings near 2.5-3.4%, combined with energy supply shocks and tariff effects, has anchored the 55.5% implied probability on a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in late July on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, while solid GDP growth, steady employment, and resilient consumer spending have reduced the odds of near-term easing. Market-implied odds from fed funds futures and related contracts show limited pricing for cuts, with “Other” at 43.5% largely reflecting scenarios that include September or October hikes. The September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated projections, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 38%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$699,229 Vol.
$699,229 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
38%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 38%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$699,229 Vol.
$699,229 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$232,006 Vol.
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$55,116 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$34,347 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$26,439 Vol.
<1%
Other
$307,833 Vol.
38%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings near 2.5-3.4%, combined with energy supply shocks and tariff effects, has anchored the 55.5% implied probability on a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in late July on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, while solid GDP growth, steady employment, and resilient consumer spending have reduced the odds of near-term easing. Market-implied odds from fed funds futures and related contracts show limited pricing for cuts, with “Other” at 43.5% largely reflecting scenarios that include September or October hikes. The September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated projections, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$699,229End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings near 2.5-3.4%, combined with energy supply shocks and tariff effects, has anchored the 55.5% implied probability on a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in late July on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, while solid GDP growth, steady employment, and resilient consumer spending have reduced the odds of near-term easing. Market-implied odds from fed funds futures and related contracts show limited pricing for cuts, with “Other” at 43.5% largely reflecting scenarios that include September or October hikes. The September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated projections, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$699,229End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings near 2.5-3.4%, combined with energy supply shocks and tariff effects, has anchored the 55.5% implied probability on a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in late July on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, while solid GDP growth, steady employment, and resilient consumer spending have reduced the odds of near-term easing. Market-implied odds from fed funds futures and related contracts show limited pricing for cuts, with “Other” at 43.5% largely reflecting scenarios that include September or October hikes. The September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated projections, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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