Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for preliminary figures on August 16, shows traders heavily favoring subdued annualized growth in the 0.0–0.8% range at 70% implied probability. This pricing reflects moderation after Q1’s solid 0.5% QoQ expansion (2.1% annualized), which was driven by resilient private consumption but appears unlikely to persist amid cooling domestic demand, softer export momentum, and lingering effects from energy-price volatility. Forecaster surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research’s August update, point to a sharp sequential slowdown, with expectations clustering near 0–1.8% annualized, consistent with broader 2026 outlooks of 0.6–0.9% full-year growth amid higher U.S. tariffs, yen weakness, and contained wage gains relative to inflation. Market-implied odds also embed the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening path and recent Tankan survey stability, underscoring limited upside risks ahead of the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0%–0.8% 71%
0.8%–1.6% 11%
1.6%–2.4% 10.5%
2.4%–3.2% 8.3%
$53,480 Vol.
$53,480 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
<1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
<1%
0.0%–0.8%
71%
0.8%–1.6%
11%
1.6%–2.4%
14%
2.4%–3.2%
11%
3.2%–4.0%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
0.0%–0.8% 71%
0.8%–1.6% 11%
1.6%–2.4% 10.5%
2.4%–3.2% 8.3%
$53,480 Vol.
$53,480 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$2,110 Vol.
<1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,013 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$2,928 Vol.
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,486 Vol.
<1%
0.0%–0.8%
$19,517 Vol.
71%
0.8%–1.6%
$13,882 Vol.
11%
1.6%–2.4%
$2,390 Vol.
14%
2.4%–3.2%
$4,218 Vol.
11%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,600 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,336 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for preliminary figures on August 16, shows traders heavily favoring subdued annualized growth in the 0.0–0.8% range at 70% implied probability. This pricing reflects moderation after Q1’s solid 0.5% QoQ expansion (2.1% annualized), which was driven by resilient private consumption but appears unlikely to persist amid cooling domestic demand, softer export momentum, and lingering effects from energy-price volatility. Forecaster surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research’s August update, point to a sharp sequential slowdown, with expectations clustering near 0–1.8% annualized, consistent with broader 2026 outlooks of 0.6–0.9% full-year growth amid higher U.S. tariffs, yen weakness, and contained wage gains relative to inflation. Market-implied odds also embed the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening path and recent Tankan survey stability, underscoring limited upside risks ahead of the data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$53,480End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for preliminary figures on August 16, shows traders heavily favoring subdued annualized growth in the 0.0–0.8% range at 70% implied probability. This pricing reflects moderation after Q1’s solid 0.5% QoQ expansion (2.1% annualized), which was driven by resilient private consumption but appears unlikely to persist amid cooling domestic demand, softer export momentum, and lingering effects from energy-price volatility. Forecaster surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research’s August update, point to a sharp sequential slowdown, with expectations clustering near 0–1.8% annualized, consistent with broader 2026 outlooks of 0.6–0.9% full-year growth amid higher U.S. tariffs, yen weakness, and contained wage gains relative to inflation. Market-implied odds also embed the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening path and recent Tankan survey stability, underscoring limited upside risks ahead of the data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$53,480End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for preliminary figures on August 16, shows traders heavily favoring subdued annualized growth in the 0.0–0.8% range at 70% implied probability. This pricing reflects moderation after Q1’s solid 0.5% QoQ expansion (2.1% annualized), which was driven by resilient private consumption but appears unlikely to persist amid cooling domestic demand, softer export momentum, and lingering effects from energy-price volatility. Forecaster surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research’s August update, point to a sharp sequential slowdown, with expectations clustering near 0–1.8% annualized, consistent with broader 2026 outlooks of 0.6–0.9% full-year growth amid higher U.S. tariffs, yen weakness, and contained wage gains relative to inflation. Market-implied odds also embed the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening path and recent Tankan survey stability, underscoring limited upside risks ahead of the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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