The July 2026 ISM Services PMI print of 54.1, just below the 54.5 consensus, established a recent base rate for the August reading scheduled for September 3, with trader probabilities now clustered tightly around 53.0–55.9. Strong business activity (59.1) and new orders (57.2) reflected resilient demand and temporary World Cup-related tailwinds, while employment’s return to contraction (47.4) and elevated prices (70.3) signaled labor-market softening and ongoing tariff-plus-energy cost pressures. Broader economic data, including solid manufacturing expansion and implied GDP growth near 2.5 percent annualized, support continued services-sector expansion above 50, yet the narrow spread in market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether post-event normalization or persistent hiring weakness will pull the next print toward the low- or mid-50s range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated54.0–54.9 32%
53.0–53.9 29%
55.0–55.9 17%
52.0–52.9 16%
$23,298 Vol.
$23,298 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
1%
50.0–50.9
1%
51.0–51.9
1%
52.0–52.9
16%
53.0–53.9
29%
54.0–54.9
32%
55.0–55.9
17%
56.0–56.9
2%
57.0–57.9
2%
58.0+
1%
54.0–54.9 32%
53.0–53.9 29%
55.0–55.9 17%
52.0–52.9 16%
$23,298 Vol.
$23,298 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
$501 Vol.
1%
50.0–50.9
$553 Vol.
1%
51.0–51.9
$581 Vol.
1%
52.0–52.9
$3,543 Vol.
16%
53.0–53.9
$8,708 Vol.
29%
54.0–54.9
$3,778 Vol.
32%
55.0–55.9
$3,822 Vol.
17%
56.0–56.9
$552 Vol.
2%
57.0–57.9
$645 Vol.
2%
58.0+
$614 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The July 2026 ISM Services PMI print of 54.1, just below the 54.5 consensus, established a recent base rate for the August reading scheduled for September 3, with trader probabilities now clustered tightly around 53.0–55.9. Strong business activity (59.1) and new orders (57.2) reflected resilient demand and temporary World Cup-related tailwinds, while employment’s return to contraction (47.4) and elevated prices (70.3) signaled labor-market softening and ongoing tariff-plus-energy cost pressures. Broader economic data, including solid manufacturing expansion and implied GDP growth near 2.5 percent annualized, support continued services-sector expansion above 50, yet the narrow spread in market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether post-event normalization or persistent hiring weakness will pull the next print toward the low- or mid-50s range.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,298End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThis is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The July 2026 ISM Services PMI print of 54.1, just below the 54.5 consensus, established a recent base rate for the August reading scheduled for September 3, with trader probabilities now clustered tightly around 53.0–55.9. Strong business activity (59.1) and new orders (57.2) reflected resilient demand and temporary World Cup-related tailwinds, while employment’s return to contraction (47.4) and elevated prices (70.3) signaled labor-market softening and ongoing tariff-plus-energy cost pressures. Broader economic data, including solid manufacturing expansion and implied GDP growth near 2.5 percent annualized, support continued services-sector expansion above 50, yet the narrow spread in market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether post-event normalization or persistent hiring weakness will pull the next print toward the low- or mid-50s range.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$23,298End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThe July 2026 ISM Services PMI print of 54.1, just below the 54.5 consensus, established a recent base rate for the August reading scheduled for September 3, with trader probabilities now clustered tightly around 53.0–55.9. Strong business activity (59.1) and new orders (57.2) reflected resilient demand and temporary World Cup-related tailwinds, while employment’s return to contraction (47.4) and elevated prices (70.3) signaled labor-market softening and ongoing tariff-plus-energy cost pressures. Broader economic data, including solid manufacturing expansion and implied GDP growth near 2.5 percent annualized, support continued services-sector expansion above 50, yet the narrow spread in market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether post-event normalization or persistent hiring weakness will pull the next print toward the low- or mid-50s range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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