**Banxico’s August 6 decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% for a second consecutive meeting underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 policy meeting.** Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June, with core measures near 3.95–4.03%, remaining inside or close to the 2–4% target band. The board has repeatedly described the current stance as providing an appropriate degree of monetary restraint, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainties, potential global trade-policy effects on energy prices, and the absence of second-round inflationary pressures. Analyst consensus and forward curves now point to rates staying unchanged through year-end, while the economy’s Q2 rebound has been offset by ongoing slack. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation prints and the September 24 Banxico meeting, which will shape expectations ahead of the November decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 86%
25 bps decrease 7.2%
25 bps increase 5.7%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
6%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 86%
25 bps decrease 7.2%
25 bps increase 5.7%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$272 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$319 Vol.
7%
No change
$5,593 Vol.
86%
25 bps increase
$440 Vol.
6%
50+ bps increase
$251 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s August 6 decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% for a second consecutive meeting underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 policy meeting.**
Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June, with core measures near 3.95–4.03%, remaining inside or close to the 2–4% target band. The board has repeatedly described the current stance as providing an appropriate degree of monetary restraint, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainties, potential global trade-policy effects on energy prices, and the absence of second-round inflationary pressures. Analyst consensus and forward curves now point to rates staying unchanged through year-end, while the economy’s Q2 rebound has been offset by ongoing slack. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation prints and the September 24 Banxico meeting, which will shape expectations ahead of the November decisions.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$6,875End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s August 6 decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% for a second consecutive meeting underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 policy meeting.**
Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June, with core measures near 3.95–4.03%, remaining inside or close to the 2–4% target band. The board has repeatedly described the current stance as providing an appropriate degree of monetary restraint, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainties, potential global trade-policy effects on energy prices, and the absence of second-round inflationary pressures. Analyst consensus and forward curves now point to rates staying unchanged through year-end, while the economy’s Q2 rebound has been offset by ongoing slack. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation prints and the September 24 Banxico meeting, which will shape expectations ahead of the November decisions.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$6,875End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Banxico’s August 6 decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% for a second consecutive meeting underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 policy meeting.** Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June, with core measures near 3.95–4.03%, remaining inside or close to the 2–4% target band. The board has repeatedly described the current stance as providing an appropriate degree of monetary restraint, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainties, potential global trade-policy effects on energy prices, and the absence of second-round inflationary pressures. Analyst consensus and forward curves now point to rates staying unchanged through year-end, while the economy’s Q2 rebound has been offset by ongoing slack. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation prints and the September 24 Banxico meeting, which will shape expectations ahead of the November decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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