Recent model releases and leaderboard volatility on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the closely matched odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holding top spots while multiple Chinese labs vie for third. Strong showings from Moonshot's Kimi series, Z.ai's GLM models, and Alibaba's Qwen variants reflect rapid gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, fueled by specialized training and larger context windows. Traders see high uncertainty because new checkpoints, open-weight drops, or fine-tunes can quickly reorder ELO scores before September 30. Key catalysts include any late-August or September launches that demonstrate measurable math gains, alongside the established pattern of Chinese labs closing capability gaps on open leaderboards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 44%
Google 26%
OpenAI 16%
Anthropic 12.0%
$23,304 Vol.
$23,304 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
44%
21%
OpenAI
16%
Anthropic
10%
Baidu
8%
Z.ai
5%
MiniMax
5%
Microsoft
4%
Moonshot
4%
Meta
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
Mistral
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Bytedance
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba 44%
Google 26%
OpenAI 16%
Anthropic 12.0%
$23,304 Vol.
$23,304 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
$5,160 Vol.
44%
$2,582 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$3,865 Vol.
16%
Anthropic
$1,526 Vol.
10%
Baidu
$1,165 Vol.
8%
Z.ai
$572 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$1,353 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$555 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$566 Vol.
4%
Meta
$568 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$577 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$566 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$545 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$523 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$548 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$569 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$523 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$567 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$506 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and leaderboard volatility on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the closely matched odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holding top spots while multiple Chinese labs vie for third. Strong showings from Moonshot's Kimi series, Z.ai's GLM models, and Alibaba's Qwen variants reflect rapid gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, fueled by specialized training and larger context windows. Traders see high uncertainty because new checkpoints, open-weight drops, or fine-tunes can quickly reorder ELO scores before September 30. Key catalysts include any late-August or September launches that demonstrate measurable math gains, alongside the established pattern of Chinese labs closing capability gaps on open leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$23,304End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and leaderboard volatility on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the closely matched odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holding top spots while multiple Chinese labs vie for third. Strong showings from Moonshot's Kimi series, Z.ai's GLM models, and Alibaba's Qwen variants reflect rapid gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, fueled by specialized training and larger context windows. Traders see high uncertainty because new checkpoints, open-weight drops, or fine-tunes can quickly reorder ELO scores before September 30. Key catalysts include any late-August or September launches that demonstrate measurable math gains, alongside the established pattern of Chinese labs closing capability gaps on open leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$23,304End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and leaderboard volatility on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the closely matched odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family holding top spots while multiple Chinese labs vie for third. Strong showings from Moonshot's Kimi series, Z.ai's GLM models, and Alibaba's Qwen variants reflect rapid gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, fueled by specialized training and larger context windows. Traders see high uncertainty because new checkpoints, open-weight drops, or fine-tunes can quickly reorder ELO scores before September 30. Key catalysts include any late-August or September launches that demonstrate measurable math gains, alongside the established pattern of Chinese labs closing capability gaps on open leaderboards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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