Traders view the third-place spot in Text Arena Math rankings by late October as highly uncertain, with multiple labs holding closely matched implied probabilities around 20–36%. This stems from rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities, where incremental gains in mathematical benchmarks can reorder standings quickly. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot compete closely with Google and OpenAI due to targeted investments in symbolic and multi-step problem-solving architectures. Differentiating factors include access to specialized training datasets, open releases that enable community benchmarking, and compute scaling for complex proofs. New model drops or arena updates over the next ten weeks remain the primary swing catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
DeepSeek 55%
OpenAI 36%
SpaceXAI 24%
Xiaomi 22%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
DeepSeek
55%
OpenAI
36%
SpaceXAI
24%
Xiaomi
22%
Anthropic
22%
Moonshot
24%
Tencent
19%
Baidu
19%
Meta
15%
Z.ai
6%
MiniMax
6%
Meituan
6%
Bytedance
6%
Mistral
6%
Microsoft
6%
Nvidia
6%
StepFun
4%
Amazon
1%
35%
Alibaba
39%
DeepSeek 55%
OpenAI 36%
SpaceXAI 24%
Xiaomi 22%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
DeepSeek
$49 Vol.
55%
OpenAI
$69 Vol.
36%
SpaceXAI
$49 Vol.
24%
Xiaomi
$69 Vol.
22%
Anthropic
$69 Vol.
22%
Moonshot
$79 Vol.
24%
Tencent
$49 Vol.
19%
Baidu
$79 Vol.
19%
Meta
$69 Vol.
15%
Z.ai
$69 Vol.
6%
MiniMax
$134 Vol.
6%
Meituan
$149 Vol.
6%
Bytedance
$130 Vol.
6%
Mistral
$142 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$92 Vol.
6%
Nvidia
$116 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$60 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$69 Vol.
1%
$45 Vol.
35%
Alibaba
$79 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the third-place spot in Text Arena Math rankings by late October as highly uncertain, with multiple labs holding closely matched implied probabilities around 20–36%. This stems from rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities, where incremental gains in mathematical benchmarks can reorder standings quickly. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot compete closely with Google and OpenAI due to targeted investments in symbolic and multi-step problem-solving architectures. Differentiating factors include access to specialized training datasets, open releases that enable community benchmarking, and compute scaling for complex proofs. New model drops or arena updates over the next ten weeks remain the primary swing catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,667End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the third-place spot in Text Arena Math rankings by late October as highly uncertain, with multiple labs holding closely matched implied probabilities around 20–36%. This stems from rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities, where incremental gains in mathematical benchmarks can reorder standings quickly. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot compete closely with Google and OpenAI due to targeted investments in symbolic and multi-step problem-solving architectures. Differentiating factors include access to specialized training datasets, open releases that enable community benchmarking, and compute scaling for complex proofs. New model drops or arena updates over the next ten weeks remain the primary swing catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,667End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the third-place spot in Text Arena Math rankings by late October as highly uncertain, with multiple labs holding closely matched implied probabilities around 20–36%. This stems from rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities, where incremental gains in mathematical benchmarks can reorder standings quickly. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot compete closely with Google and OpenAI due to targeted investments in symbolic and multi-step problem-solving architectures. Differentiating factors include access to specialized training datasets, open releases that enable community benchmarking, and compute scaling for complex proofs. New model drops or arena updates over the next ten weeks remain the primary swing catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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