A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at record +2.6–2.7 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver of elevated September global temperatures, pushing market-implied odds into a tight cluster across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with July 2026 already reaching 1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline and early September observations running near or above +0.98 °C relative to recent climatologies. Trader consensus remains balanced because monthly anomalies depend on precise ENSO teleconnections, internal variability, and the exact lag between Pacific heat release and global response, while official seasonal outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight elevated probabilities of above-normal land temperatures worldwide. Upcoming ensemble model runs and final monthly analyses from agencies such as Berkeley Earth or NASA GISS will likely resolve the narrow range separating the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at record +2.6–2.7 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver of elevated September global temperatures, pushing market-implied odds into a tight cluster across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with July 2026 already reaching 1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline and early September observations running near or above +0.98 °C relative to recent climatologies. Trader consensus remains balanced because monthly anomalies depend on precise ENSO teleconnections, internal variability, and the exact lag between Pacific heat release and global response, while official seasonal outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight elevated probabilities of above-normal land temperatures worldwide. Upcoming ensemble model runs and final monthly analyses from agencies such as Berkeley Earth or NASA GISS will likely resolve the narrow range separating the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at record +2.6–2.7 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver of elevated September global temperatures, pushing market-implied odds into a tight cluster across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with July 2026 already reaching 1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline and early September observations running near or above +0.98 °C relative to recent climatologies. Trader consensus remains balanced because monthly anomalies depend on precise ENSO teleconnections, internal variability, and the exact lag between Pacific heat release and global response, while official seasonal outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight elevated probabilities of above-normal land temperatures worldwide. Upcoming ensemble model runs and final monthly analyses from agencies such as Berkeley Earth or NASA GISS will likely resolve the narrow range separating the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at record +2.6–2.7 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver of elevated September global temperatures, pushing market-implied odds into a tight cluster across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with July 2026 already reaching 1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline and early September observations running near or above +0.98 °C relative to recent climatologies. Trader consensus remains balanced because monthly anomalies depend on precise ENSO teleconnections, internal variability, and the exact lag between Pacific heat release and global response, while official seasonal outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight elevated probabilities of above-normal land temperatures worldwide. Upcoming ensemble model runs and final monthly analyses from agencies such as Berkeley Earth or NASA GISS will likely resolve the narrow range separating the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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