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icon for Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
Climate & Science·Heat

Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?

icon for Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
Climate & Science·Heat

Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?

87-88°F 95%

89-90°F 4.7%

86°F or below 1.2%

95-96°F 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

87-88°F 95%

89-90°F 4.7%

86°F or below 1.2%

95-96°F 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

86°F or below

$846 Vol.

1%

87-88°F

$2,465 Vol.

95%

89-90°F

$880 Vol.

5%

91-92°F

$620 Vol.

<1%

93-94°F

$623 Vol.

<1%

95-96°F

$709 Vol.

1%

97°F or above

$655 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). **Trader consensus strongly favors 87-88°F as the highest temperature during Burning Man 2026 (August 30–September 7) because official station observations and National Weather Service forecasts from the Black Rock Desert showed daily maxima peaking in that narrow band early in the event before a cooler air mass arrived.** Pre-event guidance indicated highs near 84–88°F through the opening days, with subsequent cooling to the mid-70s amid increasing winds and moisture. This aligns with climatological norms for late-summer playa conditions at roughly 4,000 feet elevation, where daytime peaks are modulated by dry adiabatic lapse rates and regional high-pressure patterns rather than extreme heat domes. The low probabilities on ranges above 89°F or below 86°F reflect the absence of sustained hotter conditions or anomalous cold outbreaks in verified data. Market-implied odds could shift only if post-event quality-controlled records from nearby airports revise the observed maximum outside this interval.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).

The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.

The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.

This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Volume
$6,798
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). **Trader consensus strongly favors 87-88°F as the highest temperature during Burning Man 2026 (August 30–September 7) because official station observations and National Weather Service forecasts from the Black Rock Desert showed daily maxima peaking in that narrow band early in the event before a cooler air mass arrived.** Pre-event guidance indicated highs near 84–88°F through the opening days, with subsequent cooling to the mid-70s amid increasing winds and moisture. This aligns with climatological norms for late-summer playa conditions at roughly 4,000 feet elevation, where daytime peaks are modulated by dry adiabatic lapse rates and regional high-pressure patterns rather than extreme heat domes. The low probabilities on ranges above 89°F or below 86°F reflect the absence of sustained hotter conditions or anomalous cold outbreaks in verified data. Market-implied odds could shift only if post-event quality-controlled records from nearby airports revise the observed maximum outside this interval.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).

The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.

The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.

This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Volume
$6,798
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "87-88°F" at 95%, followed by "89-90°F" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?" is "87-88°F" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "89-90°F" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.