The current trader consensus around a late-September first Atlantic hurricane or none at all in 2026 stems primarily from the basin's record-low accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and absence of any hurricane through early September, driven by an intensifying El Niño that has sustained strong vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and atmospheric stability. Five short-lived tropical storms (Arthur through Edouard) have formed since June, but none intensified amid these hostile conditions, aligning with NOAA's below-normal seasonal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes. Historical analogs show only a handful of satellite-era seasons reaching September without a hurricane, with the latest prior first hurricane occurring on September 11. The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts no tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days, though the climatological peak around September 10 and subsequent model runs will determine whether conditions ease enough for intensification before month's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
September 21 to September 25, 2026 29%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 28%
September 16 to September 20, 2026 11%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
September 1 to September 10, 2026
1%
September 11 to September 15, 2026
5%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
11%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
29%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
11%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
28%
September 21 to September 25, 2026 29%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 28%
September 16 to September 20, 2026 11%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
September 1 to September 10, 2026
$445 Vol.
1%
September 11 to September 15, 2026
$112 Vol.
5%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
$1,051 Vol.
11%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
$29 Vol.
29%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
$422 Vol.
11%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
$110 Vol.
28%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/The current trader consensus around a late-September first Atlantic hurricane or none at all in 2026 stems primarily from the basin's record-low accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and absence of any hurricane through early September, driven by an intensifying El Niño that has sustained strong vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and atmospheric stability. Five short-lived tropical storms (Arthur through Edouard) have formed since June, but none intensified amid these hostile conditions, aligning with NOAA's below-normal seasonal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes. Historical analogs show only a handful of satellite-era seasons reaching September without a hurricane, with the latest prior first hurricane occurring on September 11. The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts no tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days, though the climatological peak around September 10 and subsequent model runs will determine whether conditions ease enough for intensification before month's end.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,169End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/The current trader consensus around a late-September first Atlantic hurricane or none at all in 2026 stems primarily from the basin's record-low accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and absence of any hurricane through early September, driven by an intensifying El Niño that has sustained strong vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and atmospheric stability. Five short-lived tropical storms (Arthur through Edouard) have formed since June, but none intensified amid these hostile conditions, aligning with NOAA's below-normal seasonal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes. Historical analogs show only a handful of satellite-era seasons reaching September without a hurricane, with the latest prior first hurricane occurring on September 11. The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts no tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days, though the climatological peak around September 10 and subsequent model runs will determine whether conditions ease enough for intensification before month's end.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$2,169End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The current trader consensus around a late-September first Atlantic hurricane or none at all in 2026 stems primarily from the basin's record-low accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and absence of any hurricane through early September, driven by an intensifying El Niño that has sustained strong vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and atmospheric stability. Five short-lived tropical storms (Arthur through Edouard) have formed since June, but none intensified amid these hostile conditions, aligning with NOAA's below-normal seasonal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes. Historical analogs show only a handful of satellite-era seasons reaching September without a hurricane, with the latest prior first hurricane occurring on September 11. The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts no tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days, though the climatological peak around September 10 and subsequent model runs will determine whether conditions ease enough for intensification before month's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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