Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with normal weekly M5.5+ counts fluctuating around 8–12 events, per long-term USGS catalogs showing ~1,300–1,500 annual M5–5.9 quakes plus ~150 M6+. As of September 7, 2026, activity remains at background levels with isolated events such as the recent M5.5 near New Caledonia and no large mainshocks or aftershock sequences elevating rates. Trader odds cluster tightly because short-term deviations depend on unpredictable clustering along subduction zones and transform faults, while model consensus from NEIC data indicates low probability of outliers without new tectonic triggers. Continuous USGS monitoring through the week will resolve the tally against standard magnitude thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
≤6 22%
more than 13 14%
8 12%
9 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
≤6
22%
7
12%
8
12%
9
12%
10
11%
11
11%
12
7%
13
9%
more than 13
14%
≤6 22%
more than 13 14%
8 12%
9 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
≤6
$2,710 Vol.
22%
7
$8 Vol.
12%
8
$10 Vol.
12%
9
$19 Vol.
12%
10
$29 Vol.
11%
11
$25 Vol.
11%
12
$39 Vol.
7%
13
$29 Vol.
9%
more than 13
$158 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with normal weekly M5.5+ counts fluctuating around 8–12 events, per long-term USGS catalogs showing ~1,300–1,500 annual M5–5.9 quakes plus ~150 M6+. As of September 7, 2026, activity remains at background levels with isolated events such as the recent M5.5 near New Caledonia and no large mainshocks or aftershock sequences elevating rates. Trader odds cluster tightly because short-term deviations depend on unpredictable clustering along subduction zones and transform faults, while model consensus from NEIC data indicates low probability of outliers without new tectonic triggers. Continuous USGS monitoring through the week will resolve the tally against standard magnitude thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,027End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with normal weekly M5.5+ counts fluctuating around 8–12 events, per long-term USGS catalogs showing ~1,300–1,500 annual M5–5.9 quakes plus ~150 M6+. As of September 7, 2026, activity remains at background levels with isolated events such as the recent M5.5 near New Caledonia and no large mainshocks or aftershock sequences elevating rates. Trader odds cluster tightly because short-term deviations depend on unpredictable clustering along subduction zones and transform faults, while model consensus from NEIC data indicates low probability of outliers without new tectonic triggers. Continuous USGS monitoring through the week will resolve the tally against standard magnitude thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$3,027End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with normal weekly M5.5+ counts fluctuating around 8–12 events, per long-term USGS catalogs showing ~1,300–1,500 annual M5–5.9 quakes plus ~150 M6+. As of September 7, 2026, activity remains at background levels with isolated events such as the recent M5.5 near New Caledonia and no large mainshocks or aftershock sequences elevating rates. Trader odds cluster tightly because short-term deviations depend on unpredictable clustering along subduction zones and transform faults, while model consensus from NEIC data indicates low probability of outliers without new tectonic triggers. Continuous USGS monitoring through the week will resolve the tally against standard magnitude thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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