Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts peaking near +4.0°C, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are driving September 2026 toward a top-three global temperature ranking. Early-month observations and ECMWF ensemble projections place the monthly mean near 16.43°C, narrowly ahead of September 2023’s record but well below August 2026’s all-time high, creating genuine uncertainty between first and second place. High sea-surface temperatures and persistent heat anomalies across multiple basins reinforce this positioning, while model spread and remaining days in the month explain why traders assign the highest implied probability to a second-place finish. Updated agency analyses and further ensemble runs over the next two weeks will narrow resolution criteria around exact ranking thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 31%
4th or lower 15.7%
3rd hottest 7.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
31%
2nd hottest
75%
3rd hottest
8%
4th or lower
16%
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 31%
4th or lower 15.7%
3rd hottest 7.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$289 Vol.
31%
2nd hottest
$1 Vol.
75%
3rd hottest
$191 Vol.
8%
4th or lower
$250 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts peaking near +4.0°C, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are driving September 2026 toward a top-three global temperature ranking. Early-month observations and ECMWF ensemble projections place the monthly mean near 16.43°C, narrowly ahead of September 2023’s record but well below August 2026’s all-time high, creating genuine uncertainty between first and second place. High sea-surface temperatures and persistent heat anomalies across multiple basins reinforce this positioning, while model spread and remaining days in the month explain why traders assign the highest implied probability to a second-place finish. Updated agency analyses and further ensemble runs over the next two weeks will narrow resolution criteria around exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$731End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts peaking near +4.0°C, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are driving September 2026 toward a top-three global temperature ranking. Early-month observations and ECMWF ensemble projections place the monthly mean near 16.43°C, narrowly ahead of September 2023’s record but well below August 2026’s all-time high, creating genuine uncertainty between first and second place. High sea-surface temperatures and persistent heat anomalies across multiple basins reinforce this positioning, while model spread and remaining days in the month explain why traders assign the highest implied probability to a second-place finish. Updated agency analyses and further ensemble runs over the next two weeks will narrow resolution criteria around exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$731End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts peaking near +4.0°C, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are driving September 2026 toward a top-three global temperature ranking. Early-month observations and ECMWF ensemble projections place the monthly mean near 16.43°C, narrowly ahead of September 2023’s record but well below August 2026’s all-time high, creating genuine uncertainty between first and second place. High sea-surface temperatures and persistent heat anomalies across multiple basins reinforce this positioning, while model spread and remaining days in the month explain why traders assign the highest implied probability to a second-place finish. Updated agency analyses and further ensemble runs over the next two weeks will narrow resolution criteria around exact ranking thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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