Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at a 90.5% implied probability stems primarily from the Mercator Research Institute's stable carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% chance of limiting warming. This is divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, with recent Global Carbon Project data confirming no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge that would prompt a recalculation. The clock updates quarterly but major deadline shifts exceeding 30 days require substantial revisions to the budget or emissions trajectory, which lack near-term catalysts before late 2026. A new IPCC assessment or sharp emissions drop could still alter the July 22, 2029, target, though historical patterns show such changes occur infrequently.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
10% chance
$13,265 Vol.
$13,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% chance
$13,265 Vol.
$13,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at a 90.5% implied probability stems primarily from the Mercator Research Institute's stable carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% chance of limiting warming. This is divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, with recent Global Carbon Project data confirming no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge that would prompt a recalculation. The clock updates quarterly but major deadline shifts exceeding 30 days require substantial revisions to the budget or emissions trajectory, which lack near-term catalysts before late 2026. A new IPCC assessment or sharp emissions drop could still alter the July 22, 2029, target, though historical patterns show such changes occur infrequently.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$13,265End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at a 90.5% implied probability stems primarily from the Mercator Research Institute's stable carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% chance of limiting warming. This is divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, with recent Global Carbon Project data confirming no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge that would prompt a recalculation. The clock updates quarterly but major deadline shifts exceeding 30 days require substantial revisions to the budget or emissions trajectory, which lack near-term catalysts before late 2026. A new IPCC assessment or sharp emissions drop could still alter the July 22, 2029, target, though historical patterns show such changes occur infrequently.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$13,265End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at a 90.5% implied probability stems primarily from the Mercator Research Institute's stable carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% chance of limiting warming. This is divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, with recent Global Carbon Project data confirming no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge that would prompt a recalculation. The clock updates quarterly but major deadline shifts exceeding 30 days require substantial revisions to the budget or emissions trajectory, which lack near-term catalysts before late 2026. A new IPCC assessment or sharp emissions drop could still alter the July 22, 2029, target, though historical patterns show such changes occur infrequently.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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