Recent polling volatility and the launch of the October 5 Quebec election campaign explain the market's clustering around 50-54 PQ seats. The Parti Québécois holds a narrow lead near 28-30% in vote intention, but a late Synopsis surge has lifted the CAQ to statistical parity at 27%, narrowing the gap in francophone-heavy ridings where seat efficiency matters most. Fragmented federalist support among the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives, combined with PQ strength outside Montreal, produces many competitive contests and wide seat-projection ranges across models. Traders appear to weigh the risk that further CAQ gains or turnout shifts could push PQ totals below 50 or, conversely, enable a slim majority above 64.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50-54 30%
<50 21%
65-69 14%
55-59 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
21%
50-54
30%
55-59
13%
60-64
9%
65-69
14%
70-74
11%
75-79
4%
80+
5%
50-54 30%
<50 21%
65-69 14%
55-59 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$873 Vol.
21%
50-54
$882 Vol.
30%
55-59
$423 Vol.
13%
60-64
$695 Vol.
9%
65-69
$2,384 Vol.
14%
70-74
$1,662 Vol.
11%
75-79
$953 Vol.
4%
80+
$839 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling volatility and the launch of the October 5 Quebec election campaign explain the market's clustering around 50-54 PQ seats. The Parti Québécois holds a narrow lead near 28-30% in vote intention, but a late Synopsis surge has lifted the CAQ to statistical parity at 27%, narrowing the gap in francophone-heavy ridings where seat efficiency matters most. Fragmented federalist support among the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives, combined with PQ strength outside Montreal, produces many competitive contests and wide seat-projection ranges across models. Traders appear to weigh the risk that further CAQ gains or turnout shifts could push PQ totals below 50 or, conversely, enable a slim majority above 64.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,712End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling volatility and the launch of the October 5 Quebec election campaign explain the market's clustering around 50-54 PQ seats. The Parti Québécois holds a narrow lead near 28-30% in vote intention, but a late Synopsis surge has lifted the CAQ to statistical parity at 27%, narrowing the gap in francophone-heavy ridings where seat efficiency matters most. Fragmented federalist support among the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives, combined with PQ strength outside Montreal, produces many competitive contests and wide seat-projection ranges across models. Traders appear to weigh the risk that further CAQ gains or turnout shifts could push PQ totals below 50 or, conversely, enable a slim majority above 64.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$8,712End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling volatility and the launch of the October 5 Quebec election campaign explain the market's clustering around 50-54 PQ seats. The Parti Québécois holds a narrow lead near 28-30% in vote intention, but a late Synopsis surge has lifted the CAQ to statistical parity at 27%, narrowing the gap in francophone-heavy ridings where seat efficiency matters most. Fragmented federalist support among the Liberals, CAQ, and Conservatives, combined with PQ strength outside Montreal, produces many competitive contests and wide seat-projection ranges across models. Traders appear to weigh the risk that further CAQ gains or turnout shifts could push PQ totals below 50 or, conversely, enable a slim majority above 64.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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