The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around 8–13 seats for the Parti Conservateur du Québec reflects its concentrated support in the Capitale-Nationale region, where recent regional polling shows it competitive or ahead in several ridings, offset by weaker performance elsewhere under first-past-the-post rules. With the October 5 election campaign just underway following the writ, PCQ vote share has held steady near 14–16 percent provincewide in late August surveys, but seat efficiency hinges on local three-way or multi-party splits among the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ for francophone voters. Recent platform announcements on tax relief and spending restraint have reinforced its core messaging, while isolated candidate controversies introduce downside risk. Modest shifts in Quebec City-area turnout or further consolidation of anti-PQ votes could expand or contract its projected haul of roughly 5–16 seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11-13 22%
8-10 21%
<5 15%
5-7 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
15%
5-7
12%
8-10
21%
11-13
22%
14-16
11%
17+
7%
11-13 22%
8-10 21%
<5 15%
5-7 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,190 Vol.
15%
5-7
$321 Vol.
12%
8-10
$789 Vol.
21%
11-13
$907 Vol.
22%
14-16
$704 Vol.
11%
17+
$676 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around 8–13 seats for the Parti Conservateur du Québec reflects its concentrated support in the Capitale-Nationale region, where recent regional polling shows it competitive or ahead in several ridings, offset by weaker performance elsewhere under first-past-the-post rules. With the October 5 election campaign just underway following the writ, PCQ vote share has held steady near 14–16 percent provincewide in late August surveys, but seat efficiency hinges on local three-way or multi-party splits among the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ for francophone voters. Recent platform announcements on tax relief and spending restraint have reinforced its core messaging, while isolated candidate controversies introduce downside risk. Modest shifts in Quebec City-area turnout or further consolidation of anti-PQ votes could expand or contract its projected haul of roughly 5–16 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$4,586End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around 8–13 seats for the Parti Conservateur du Québec reflects its concentrated support in the Capitale-Nationale region, where recent regional polling shows it competitive or ahead in several ridings, offset by weaker performance elsewhere under first-past-the-post rules. With the October 5 election campaign just underway following the writ, PCQ vote share has held steady near 14–16 percent provincewide in late August surveys, but seat efficiency hinges on local three-way or multi-party splits among the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ for francophone voters. Recent platform announcements on tax relief and spending restraint have reinforced its core messaging, while isolated candidate controversies introduce downside risk. Modest shifts in Quebec City-area turnout or further consolidation of anti-PQ votes could expand or contract its projected haul of roughly 5–16 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$4,586End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around 8–13 seats for the Parti Conservateur du Québec reflects its concentrated support in the Capitale-Nationale region, where recent regional polling shows it competitive or ahead in several ridings, offset by weaker performance elsewhere under first-past-the-post rules. With the October 5 election campaign just underway following the writ, PCQ vote share has held steady near 14–16 percent provincewide in late August surveys, but seat efficiency hinges on local three-way or multi-party splits among the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ for francophone voters. Recent platform announcements on tax relief and spending restraint have reinforced its core messaging, while isolated candidate controversies introduce downside risk. Modest shifts in Quebec City-area turnout or further consolidation of anti-PQ votes could expand or contract its projected haul of roughly 5–16 seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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