Recent polling shows the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) vote share declining to the low 20s amid a surge for the Coalition Avenir Québec and steady Parti Québécois support ahead of the October 5 election. Projections from 338Canada and similar models place the PLQ at roughly 31 seats with a 27-37 range, reflecting its heavy concentration in Montreal-area ridings where anglophone and allophone voters remain loyal but francophone backing stays limited. The party’s path to higher totals depends on minimizing losses outside its core urban base and capitalizing on any late consolidation among non-sovereigntist voters. Current trader pricing on lower seat bands aligns with these trends and the competitive multi-party field that fragments opposition support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<28 34%
28-31 26%
32-35 13%
40-43 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<28
34%
28-31
22%
32-35
13%
36-39
7%
40-43
8%
44+
7%
<28 34%
28-31 26%
32-35 13%
40-43 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<28
$1,039 Vol.
34%
28-31
$1,232 Vol.
22%
32-35
$515 Vol.
13%
36-39
$983 Vol.
7%
40-43
$693 Vol.
8%
44+
$544 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) vote share declining to the low 20s amid a surge for the Coalition Avenir Québec and steady Parti Québécois support ahead of the October 5 election. Projections from 338Canada and similar models place the PLQ at roughly 31 seats with a 27-37 range, reflecting its heavy concentration in Montreal-area ridings where anglophone and allophone voters remain loyal but francophone backing stays limited. The party’s path to higher totals depends on minimizing losses outside its core urban base and capitalizing on any late consolidation among non-sovereigntist voters. Current trader pricing on lower seat bands aligns with these trends and the competitive multi-party field that fragments opposition support.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$5,006End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) vote share declining to the low 20s amid a surge for the Coalition Avenir Québec and steady Parti Québécois support ahead of the October 5 election. Projections from 338Canada and similar models place the PLQ at roughly 31 seats with a 27-37 range, reflecting its heavy concentration in Montreal-area ridings where anglophone and allophone voters remain loyal but francophone backing stays limited. The party’s path to higher totals depends on minimizing losses outside its core urban base and capitalizing on any late consolidation among non-sovereigntist voters. Current trader pricing on lower seat bands aligns with these trends and the competitive multi-party field that fragments opposition support.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$5,006End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) vote share declining to the low 20s amid a surge for the Coalition Avenir Québec and steady Parti Québécois support ahead of the October 5 election. Projections from 338Canada and similar models place the PLQ at roughly 31 seats with a 27-37 range, reflecting its heavy concentration in Montreal-area ridings where anglophone and allophone voters remain loyal but francophone backing stays limited. The party’s path to higher totals depends on minimizing losses outside its core urban base and capitalizing on any late consolidation among non-sovereigntist voters. Current trader pricing on lower seat bands aligns with these trends and the competitive multi-party field that fragments opposition support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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