Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading or tied with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, while the Parti Libéral du Québec holds steady support concentrated in Montreal and among anglophone and allophone voters. This regional strength positions the PLQ to secure enough seats for official opposition status even as its overall vote share trails. The CAQ’s recent gains under new leader Christine Fréchette have narrowed the gap with the PQ on francophone voters and older demographics, creating uncertainty over whether the Liberals or a surging CAQ claim second place in the National Assembly. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the short campaign window add volatility, as shifts in turnout or regional results could alter seat totals before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPLQ 49%
CAQ 36%
PQ 10%
QS 3.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
PLQ
49%
CAQ
36%
PQ
10%
QS
3%
PCQ
1%
PVQ
<1%
PLQ 49%
CAQ 36%
PQ 10%
QS 3.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
PLQ
$1,554 Vol.
49%
CAQ
$1,686 Vol.
36%
PQ
$770 Vol.
10%
QS
$978 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$553 Vol.
1%
PVQ
$811 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading or tied with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, while the Parti Libéral du Québec holds steady support concentrated in Montreal and among anglophone and allophone voters. This regional strength positions the PLQ to secure enough seats for official opposition status even as its overall vote share trails. The CAQ’s recent gains under new leader Christine Fréchette have narrowed the gap with the PQ on francophone voters and older demographics, creating uncertainty over whether the Liberals or a surging CAQ claim second place in the National Assembly. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the short campaign window add volatility, as shifts in turnout or regional results could alter seat totals before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,352End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading or tied with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, while the Parti Libéral du Québec holds steady support concentrated in Montreal and among anglophone and allophone voters. This regional strength positions the PLQ to secure enough seats for official opposition status even as its overall vote share trails. The CAQ’s recent gains under new leader Christine Fréchette have narrowed the gap with the PQ on francophone voters and older demographics, creating uncertainty over whether the Liberals or a surging CAQ claim second place in the National Assembly. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the short campaign window add volatility, as shifts in turnout or regional results could alter seat totals before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$6,352End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading or tied with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, while the Parti Libéral du Québec holds steady support concentrated in Montreal and among anglophone and allophone voters. This regional strength positions the PLQ to secure enough seats for official opposition status even as its overall vote share trails. The CAQ’s recent gains under new leader Christine Fréchette have narrowed the gap with the PQ on francophone voters and older demographics, creating uncertainty over whether the Liberals or a surging CAQ claim second place in the National Assembly. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the short campaign window add volatility, as shifts in turnout or regional results could alter seat totals before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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