Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several urban ridings, particularly on Montreal Island and in central Quebec City districts such as Jean-Lesage, Taschereau, Mercier, and Gouin. Recent polling averages place the party at 8-10% provincewide, with support concentrated enough to secure multiple seats under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Poliwave consistently forecast 3-11 seats for QS in the October 5, 2026 election, even as the party trails the leading Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The writ was dropped in late August, and no major collapse in QS’s core ridings has emerged in the opening days of the campaign. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a high probability that the party wins at least one seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated96% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
96% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several urban ridings, particularly on Montreal Island and in central Quebec City districts such as Jean-Lesage, Taschereau, Mercier, and Gouin. Recent polling averages place the party at 8-10% provincewide, with support concentrated enough to secure multiple seats under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Poliwave consistently forecast 3-11 seats for QS in the October 5, 2026 election, even as the party trails the leading Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The writ was dropped in late August, and no major collapse in QS’s core ridings has emerged in the opening days of the campaign. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a high probability that the party wins at least one seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$279End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several urban ridings, particularly on Montreal Island and in central Quebec City districts such as Jean-Lesage, Taschereau, Mercier, and Gouin. Recent polling averages place the party at 8-10% provincewide, with support concentrated enough to secure multiple seats under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Poliwave consistently forecast 3-11 seats for QS in the October 5, 2026 election, even as the party trails the leading Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The writ was dropped in late August, and no major collapse in QS’s core ridings has emerged in the opening days of the campaign. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a high probability that the party wins at least one seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$279End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Québec solidaire maintains competitive positions in several urban ridings, particularly on Montreal Island and in central Quebec City districts such as Jean-Lesage, Taschereau, Mercier, and Gouin. Recent polling averages place the party at 8-10% provincewide, with support concentrated enough to secure multiple seats under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Poliwave consistently forecast 3-11 seats for QS in the October 5, 2026 election, even as the party trails the leading Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The writ was dropped in late August, and no major collapse in QS’s core ridings has emerged in the opening days of the campaign. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a high probability that the party wins at least one seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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