**Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) are not expected to form a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election.** Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants like Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, prompting alliance talks across the broader right-wing bloc. Netanyahu has publicly urged consolidation—particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit—to avoid wasted votes, but Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with Smotrich as final. RZP finalized and released its independent Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich retaining the top spot and additional candidates selected for reserved positions; the list must be submitted by early September. While Likud has discussed reserving slots for religious-Zionist figures or other tactical alignments to shore up support, no agreement for a combined Likud-RZP list has materialized. Smotrich has instead explored options such as a joint run with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin. These dynamics, combined with Likud’s separate August primary and finalized national list, underpin traders’ 79% probability that the two parties will contest the election independently.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated21% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
21% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) are not expected to form a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election.** Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants like Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, prompting alliance talks across the broader right-wing bloc. Netanyahu has publicly urged consolidation—particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit—to avoid wasted votes, but Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with Smotrich as final.
RZP finalized and released its independent Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich retaining the top spot and additional candidates selected for reserved positions; the list must be submitted by early September. While Likud has discussed reserving slots for religious-Zionist figures or other tactical alignments to shore up support, no agreement for a combined Likud-RZP list has materialized. Smotrich has instead explored options such as a joint run with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin. These dynamics, combined with Likud’s separate August primary and finalized national list, underpin traders’ 79% probability that the two parties will contest the election independently.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) are not expected to form a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election.** Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants like Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, prompting alliance talks across the broader right-wing bloc. Netanyahu has publicly urged consolidation—particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit—to avoid wasted votes, but Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with Smotrich as final.
RZP finalized and released its independent Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich retaining the top spot and additional candidates selected for reserved positions; the list must be submitted by early September. While Likud has discussed reserving slots for religious-Zionist figures or other tactical alignments to shore up support, no agreement for a combined Likud-RZP list has materialized. Smotrich has instead explored options such as a joint run with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin. These dynamics, combined with Likud’s separate August primary and finalized national list, underpin traders’ 79% probability that the two parties will contest the election independently.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) are not expected to form a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election.** Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants like Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party, prompting alliance talks across the broader right-wing bloc. Netanyahu has publicly urged consolidation—particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit—to avoid wasted votes, but Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with Smotrich as final. RZP finalized and released its independent Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich retaining the top spot and additional candidates selected for reserved positions; the list must be submitted by early September. While Likud has discussed reserving slots for religious-Zionist figures or other tactical alignments to shore up support, no agreement for a combined Likud-RZP list has materialized. Smotrich has instead explored options such as a joint run with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin. These dynamics, combined with Likud’s separate August primary and finalized national list, underpin traders’ 79% probability that the two parties will contest the election independently.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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