Recent polling volatility and the fragmented multi-party contest explain the wide spread in trader probabilities for CAQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. A late-August Synopsis survey showed the CAQ surging seven points to tie the PQ at 27-28 percent overall, with particular gains among francophones and voters over 55, while the Liberals fell sharply and the Conservatives held steady near 15 percent. Seat models reflect this uncertainty, projecting the CAQ in a broad range centered around the mid-20s to low-30s but with wide confidence intervals driven by tight regional races, vote splitting among federalist parties, and the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions now dominating the campaign. Further polling shifts or regional turnout patterns could consolidate or disperse these outcomes before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 18%
10-14 18%
15-19 18%
25-29 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
3%
5-9
8%
10-14
18%
15-19
18%
20-24
15%
25-29
17%
30+
18%
30+ 18%
10-14 18%
15-19 18%
25-29 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$451 Vol.
3%
5-9
$852 Vol.
8%
10-14
$1,621 Vol.
18%
15-19
$803 Vol.
18%
20-24
$565 Vol.
15%
25-29
$782 Vol.
17%
30+
$836 Vol.
18%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling volatility and the fragmented multi-party contest explain the wide spread in trader probabilities for CAQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. A late-August Synopsis survey showed the CAQ surging seven points to tie the PQ at 27-28 percent overall, with particular gains among francophones and voters over 55, while the Liberals fell sharply and the Conservatives held steady near 15 percent. Seat models reflect this uncertainty, projecting the CAQ in a broad range centered around the mid-20s to low-30s but with wide confidence intervals driven by tight regional races, vote splitting among federalist parties, and the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions now dominating the campaign. Further polling shifts or regional turnout patterns could consolidate or disperse these outcomes before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$5,910End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling volatility and the fragmented multi-party contest explain the wide spread in trader probabilities for CAQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. A late-August Synopsis survey showed the CAQ surging seven points to tie the PQ at 27-28 percent overall, with particular gains among francophones and voters over 55, while the Liberals fell sharply and the Conservatives held steady near 15 percent. Seat models reflect this uncertainty, projecting the CAQ in a broad range centered around the mid-20s to low-30s but with wide confidence intervals driven by tight regional races, vote splitting among federalist parties, and the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions now dominating the campaign. Further polling shifts or regional turnout patterns could consolidate or disperse these outcomes before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$5,910End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling volatility and the fragmented multi-party contest explain the wide spread in trader probabilities for CAQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. A late-August Synopsis survey showed the CAQ surging seven points to tie the PQ at 27-28 percent overall, with particular gains among francophones and voters over 55, while the Liberals fell sharply and the Conservatives held steady near 15 percent. Seat models reflect this uncertainty, projecting the CAQ in a broad range centered around the mid-20s to low-30s but with wide confidence intervals driven by tight regional races, vote splitting among federalist parties, and the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions now dominating the campaign. Further polling shifts or regional turnout patterns could consolidate or disperse these outcomes before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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