Mexico's ongoing disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest level since mid-2020—anchors trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average. Core inflation eased to 3.95%, returning within Banxico's 2-4% target band, supported by subdued non-core components and the central bank's steady 6.50% policy rate. This path reflects prior monetary tightening, softer domestic demand, and favorable base effects. Forecasts from Banxico and private analysts cluster around 3.5-4.1% for year-end 2026, with convergence toward 3% anticipated in 2027. Recent data releases have reinforced the 3.00-3.99% range as the consensus zone, though volatility in food and energy prices could still shift the annual outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 35.8%
3.00% to 3.49% 22.2%
4.00% to 4.49% 16%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$61,335 Vol.
$61,335 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
22%
3.50% to 3.99%
36%
4.00% to 4.49%
16%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
7%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 35.8%
3.00% to 3.49% 22.2%
4.00% to 4.49% 16%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$61,335 Vol.
$61,335 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$1,053 Vol.
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,887 Vol.
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
$27,439 Vol.
22%
3.50% to 3.99%
$3,789 Vol.
36%
4.00% to 4.49%
$10,677 Vol.
16%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,745 Vol.
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,439 Vol.
7%
5.50%+
$6,305 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's ongoing disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest level since mid-2020—anchors trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average. Core inflation eased to 3.95%, returning within Banxico's 2-4% target band, supported by subdued non-core components and the central bank's steady 6.50% policy rate. This path reflects prior monetary tightening, softer domestic demand, and favorable base effects. Forecasts from Banxico and private analysts cluster around 3.5-4.1% for year-end 2026, with convergence toward 3% anticipated in 2027. Recent data releases have reinforced the 3.00-3.99% range as the consensus zone, though volatility in food and energy prices could still shift the annual outcome.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$61,335End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's ongoing disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest level since mid-2020—anchors trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average. Core inflation eased to 3.95%, returning within Banxico's 2-4% target band, supported by subdued non-core components and the central bank's steady 6.50% policy rate. This path reflects prior monetary tightening, softer domestic demand, and favorable base effects. Forecasts from Banxico and private analysts cluster around 3.5-4.1% for year-end 2026, with convergence toward 3% anticipated in 2027. Recent data releases have reinforced the 3.00-3.99% range as the consensus zone, though volatility in food and energy prices could still shift the annual outcome.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$61,335End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico's ongoing disinflation, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest level since mid-2020—anchors trader expectations for the full-year 2026 average. Core inflation eased to 3.95%, returning within Banxico's 2-4% target band, supported by subdued non-core components and the central bank's steady 6.50% policy rate. This path reflects prior monetary tightening, softer domestic demand, and favorable base effects. Forecasts from Banxico and private analysts cluster around 3.5-4.1% for year-end 2026, with convergence toward 3% anticipated in 2027. Recent data releases have reinforced the 3.00-3.99% range as the consensus zone, though volatility in food and energy prices could still shift the annual outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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