**Recent official and model forecasts position 23–24°C as the most likely overnight low for Shanghai on September 9, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes (57.5% for 24°C and 27% for 23°C).** Northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air from higher latitudes, combined with partly cloudy skies, support radiative cooling after sunset. Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF), consistently project a minimum near 22–24°C for that night, with daytime highs around 28–30°C. This reflects typical early-September transition conditions in the Yangtze River Delta, where average overnight lows trend downward from summer peaks. Slight forecast spread arises from uncertainty in cloud cover and exact wind timing, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way—explaining the smaller probabilities on 22°C, 25°C, and 26°C. No major weather systems are expected to disrupt the pattern before resolution, keeping trader-implied odds anchored to the current consensus. Updated model runs and the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s final briefing on September 8–9 will provide the last inputs before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
24°C 57%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
26°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
3%
22°C
15%
23°C
27%
24°C
57%
25°C
19%
26°C
18%
27°C
13%
28°C
13%
29°C or higher
2%
24°C 57%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
26°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$144 Vol.
27%
24°C
$551 Vol.
57%
25°C
$20 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
18%
27°C
$0 Vol.
13%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official and model forecasts position 23–24°C as the most likely overnight low for Shanghai on September 9, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes (57.5% for 24°C and 27% for 23°C).**
Northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air from higher latitudes, combined with partly cloudy skies, support radiative cooling after sunset. Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF), consistently project a minimum near 22–24°C for that night, with daytime highs around 28–30°C. This reflects typical early-September transition conditions in the Yangtze River Delta, where average overnight lows trend downward from summer peaks.
Slight forecast spread arises from uncertainty in cloud cover and exact wind timing, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way—explaining the smaller probabilities on 22°C, 25°C, and 26°C. No major weather systems are expected to disrupt the pattern before resolution, keeping trader-implied odds anchored to the current consensus. Updated model runs and the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s final briefing on September 8–9 will provide the last inputs before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$714End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official and model forecasts position 23–24°C as the most likely overnight low for Shanghai on September 9, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes (57.5% for 24°C and 27% for 23°C).**
Northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air from higher latitudes, combined with partly cloudy skies, support radiative cooling after sunset. Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF), consistently project a minimum near 22–24°C for that night, with daytime highs around 28–30°C. This reflects typical early-September transition conditions in the Yangtze River Delta, where average overnight lows trend downward from summer peaks.
Slight forecast spread arises from uncertainty in cloud cover and exact wind timing, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way—explaining the smaller probabilities on 22°C, 25°C, and 26°C. No major weather systems are expected to disrupt the pattern before resolution, keeping trader-implied odds anchored to the current consensus. Updated model runs and the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s final briefing on September 8–9 will provide the last inputs before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$714End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official and model forecasts position 23–24°C as the most likely overnight low for Shanghai on September 9, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes (57.5% for 24°C and 27% for 23°C).** Northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air from higher latitudes, combined with partly cloudy skies, support radiative cooling after sunset. Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF), consistently project a minimum near 22–24°C for that night, with daytime highs around 28–30°C. This reflects typical early-September transition conditions in the Yangtze River Delta, where average overnight lows trend downward from summer peaks. Slight forecast spread arises from uncertainty in cloud cover and exact wind timing, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way—explaining the smaller probabilities on 22°C, 25°C, and 26°C. No major weather systems are expected to disrupt the pattern before resolution, keeping trader-implied odds anchored to the current consensus. Updated model runs and the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s final briefing on September 8–9 will provide the last inputs before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions