Trader consensus on 38°C as Madrid’s peak temperature for September 7 reflects National Weather Service and European model consensus showing a strong high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon maxima near that threshold at official stations such as Madrid-Barajas or Retiro. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures climbing rapidly under low humidity and light winds, consistent with the 38.5 °C historical record for the date set in 2016. Implied probability near 100 % indicates minimal forecast divergence across ensemble members and limited scope for underperformance. A realistic challenge would require an earlier sea-breeze intrusion, unexpected cloud cover, or post-processing adjustment at the verifying station that caps the reading at 37 °C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
38°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$43,132 Vol.
$43,132 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
100%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$43,132 Vol.
$43,132 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
34°C or below
$98 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$581 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$6,000 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$13,640 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$13,576 Vol.
100%
39°C
$6,385 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$962 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$1,115 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$161 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$307 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$307 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on 38°C as Madrid’s peak temperature for September 7 reflects National Weather Service and European model consensus showing a strong high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon maxima near that threshold at official stations such as Madrid-Barajas or Retiro. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures climbing rapidly under low humidity and light winds, consistent with the 38.5 °C historical record for the date set in 2016. Implied probability near 100 % indicates minimal forecast divergence across ensemble members and limited scope for underperformance. A realistic challenge would require an earlier sea-breeze intrusion, unexpected cloud cover, or post-processing adjustment at the verifying station that caps the reading at 37 °C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$43,132End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on 38°C as Madrid’s peak temperature for September 7 reflects National Weather Service and European model consensus showing a strong high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon maxima near that threshold at official stations such as Madrid-Barajas or Retiro. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures climbing rapidly under low humidity and light winds, consistent with the 38.5 °C historical record for the date set in 2016. Implied probability near 100 % indicates minimal forecast divergence across ensemble members and limited scope for underperformance. A realistic challenge would require an earlier sea-breeze intrusion, unexpected cloud cover, or post-processing adjustment at the verifying station that caps the reading at 37 °C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,132End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 38°C as Madrid’s peak temperature for September 7 reflects National Weather Service and European model consensus showing a strong high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon maxima near that threshold at official stations such as Madrid-Barajas or Retiro. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures climbing rapidly under low humidity and light winds, consistent with the 38.5 °C historical record for the date set in 2016. Implied probability near 100 % indicates minimal forecast divergence across ensemble members and limited scope for underperformance. A realistic challenge would require an earlier sea-breeze intrusion, unexpected cloud cover, or post-processing adjustment at the verifying station that caps the reading at 37 °C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions