The closely matched market odds around 43% for a Munich low of 18°C or higher versus 8°C or below on September 9 reflect substantial uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Official forecasts show this system arriving midweek with rain, westerly winds, and a shift from recent above-normal warmth to seasonal values near the 11°C historical average low. Key variables include post-frontal cloud cover that could limit overnight radiational cooling versus partial clearing that would enhance it, alongside model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds. Traders weigh these factors against typical early-September variability, where September 9 lows have ranged from 1.5°C to over 14°C in recent decades. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 9?
8°C or below 87%
18°C or higher 81%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
8°C or below
87%
9°C
21%
10°C
20%
11°C
49%
12°C
49%
13°C
29%
14°C
29%
15°C
27%
16°C
21%
17°C
19%
18°C or higher
81%
8°C or below 87%
18°C or higher 81%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
87%
9°C
$0 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
29%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$38 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 43% for a Munich low of 18°C or higher versus 8°C or below on September 9 reflect substantial uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Official forecasts show this system arriving midweek with rain, westerly winds, and a shift from recent above-normal warmth to seasonal values near the 11°C historical average low. Key variables include post-frontal cloud cover that could limit overnight radiational cooling versus partial clearing that would enhance it, alongside model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds. Traders weigh these factors against typical early-September variability, where September 9 lows have ranged from 1.5°C to over 14°C in recent decades. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$38End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 43% for a Munich low of 18°C or higher versus 8°C or below on September 9 reflect substantial uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Official forecasts show this system arriving midweek with rain, westerly winds, and a shift from recent above-normal warmth to seasonal values near the 11°C historical average low. Key variables include post-frontal cloud cover that could limit overnight radiational cooling versus partial clearing that would enhance it, alongside model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds. Traders weigh these factors against typical early-September variability, where September 9 lows have ranged from 1.5°C to over 14°C in recent decades. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds around 43% for a Munich low of 18°C or higher versus 8°C or below on September 9 reflect substantial uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Official forecasts show this system arriving midweek with rain, westerly winds, and a shift from recent above-normal warmth to seasonal values near the 11°C historical average low. Key variables include post-frontal cloud cover that could limit overnight radiational cooling versus partial clearing that would enhance it, alongside model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds. Traders weigh these factors against typical early-September variability, where September 9 lows have ranged from 1.5°C to over 14°C in recent decades. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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