**Current numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from GFS, ECMWF, and DWD, indicate a minimum temperature of roughly 17–19°C for Munich on September 8, 2026, under a mild southerly flow with mostly clear skies that limit radiative cooling overnight.** This setup favors higher temperature bins over the 12°C-or-below outcome currently carrying the highest market-implied probability. The climatological average low for the date is 11.1°C, yet the present warm air mass and light winds reduce the likelihood of substantial overnight drops. Model consensus shows limited spread for this short-range forecast, though small revisions in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to weigh residual uncertainty in the final model runs against the strong signal for mild conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 8?
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
15°C 23%
16°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
12°C or below
51%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
23%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
15°C 23%
16°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
12°C or below
$26 Vol.
51%
13°C
$11 Vol.
26%
14°C
$5 Vol.
26%
15°C
$178 Vol.
23%
16°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$60 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from GFS, ECMWF, and DWD, indicate a minimum temperature of roughly 17–19°C for Munich on September 8, 2026, under a mild southerly flow with mostly clear skies that limit radiative cooling overnight.** This setup favors higher temperature bins over the 12°C-or-below outcome currently carrying the highest market-implied probability. The climatological average low for the date is 11.1°C, yet the present warm air mass and light winds reduce the likelihood of substantial overnight drops. Model consensus shows limited spread for this short-range forecast, though small revisions in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to weigh residual uncertainty in the final model runs against the strong signal for mild conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$786End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from GFS, ECMWF, and DWD, indicate a minimum temperature of roughly 17–19°C for Munich on September 8, 2026, under a mild southerly flow with mostly clear skies that limit radiative cooling overnight.** This setup favors higher temperature bins over the 12°C-or-below outcome currently carrying the highest market-implied probability. The climatological average low for the date is 11.1°C, yet the present warm air mass and light winds reduce the likelihood of substantial overnight drops. Model consensus shows limited spread for this short-range forecast, though small revisions in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to weigh residual uncertainty in the final model runs against the strong signal for mild conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$786End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from GFS, ECMWF, and DWD, indicate a minimum temperature of roughly 17–19°C for Munich on September 8, 2026, under a mild southerly flow with mostly clear skies that limit radiative cooling overnight.** This setup favors higher temperature bins over the 12°C-or-below outcome currently carrying the highest market-implied probability. The climatological average low for the date is 11.1°C, yet the present warm air mass and light winds reduce the likelihood of substantial overnight drops. Model consensus shows limited spread for this short-range forecast, though small revisions in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to weigh residual uncertainty in the final model runs against the strong signal for mild conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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