**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting model guidance point to a minimum temperature of 28°C on September 22, 2026, driven by a strengthening northeast monsoon that maintains moderate easterly flow and limits nocturnal radiative cooling.** Partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers have kept overnight lows stable near this level, consistent with climatological norms for late September under similar synoptic patterns. High dew points and humidity around 65–95% further moderate temperature drops. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 28°C reflects this strong observational and forecast consensus backed by real capital. Only significant deviations—such as an unexpected surge in cloud cover or unmodeled precipitation—could realistically push the minimum below 27°C or above 29°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 22?
28°C 99.6%
24°C 1.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$43,617 Vol.
$43,617 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.6%
24°C 1.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$43,617 Vol.
$43,617 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
$1,297 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$940 Vol.
1%
25°C
$3,272 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$7,641 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$6,625 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$19,923 Vol.
100%
29°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,315 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting model guidance point to a minimum temperature of 28°C on September 22, 2026, driven by a strengthening northeast monsoon that maintains moderate easterly flow and limits nocturnal radiative cooling.** Partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers have kept overnight lows stable near this level, consistent with climatological norms for late September under similar synoptic patterns. High dew points and humidity around 65–95% further moderate temperature drops. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 28°C reflects this strong observational and forecast consensus backed by real capital. Only significant deviations—such as an unexpected surge in cloud cover or unmodeled precipitation—could realistically push the minimum below 27°C or above 29°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$43,617End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting model guidance point to a minimum temperature of 28°C on September 22, 2026, driven by a strengthening northeast monsoon that maintains moderate easterly flow and limits nocturnal radiative cooling.** Partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers have kept overnight lows stable near this level, consistent with climatological norms for late September under similar synoptic patterns. High dew points and humidity around 65–95% further moderate temperature drops. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 28°C reflects this strong observational and forecast consensus backed by real capital. Only significant deviations—such as an unexpected surge in cloud cover or unmodeled precipitation—could realistically push the minimum below 27°C or above 29°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,617End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting model guidance point to a minimum temperature of 28°C on September 22, 2026, driven by a strengthening northeast monsoon that maintains moderate easterly flow and limits nocturnal radiative cooling.** Partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers have kept overnight lows stable near this level, consistent with climatological norms for late September under similar synoptic patterns. High dew points and humidity around 65–95% further moderate temperature drops. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 28°C reflects this strong observational and forecast consensus backed by real capital. Only significant deviations—such as an unexpected surge in cloud cover or unmodeled precipitation—could realistically push the minimum below 27°C or above 29°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions