Market-implied odds strongly favor a 27°C low in Hong Kong on August 25, consistent with seasonal climatology where August nighttime minima average near 26–27°C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon and high humidity. Official HK Observatory guidance and short-range forecasts point to partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum near the upper end of the typical 25–28°C range. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in the latest HKO outlook further support this outcome, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could allow a brief dip toward 26°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric factors heavily ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
27°C 89%
26°C 7%
25°C 3.6%
24°C <1%
$26,569 Vol.
$26,569 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
7%
27°C
89%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 89%
26°C 7%
25°C 3.6%
24°C <1%
$26,569 Vol.
$26,569 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$1,414 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,485 Vol.
4%
26°C
$1,757 Vol.
7%
27°C
$5,088 Vol.
89%
28°C
$7,494 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,938 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$919 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,536 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds strongly favor a 27°C low in Hong Kong on August 25, consistent with seasonal climatology where August nighttime minima average near 26–27°C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon and high humidity. Official HK Observatory guidance and short-range forecasts point to partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum near the upper end of the typical 25–28°C range. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in the latest HKO outlook further support this outcome, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could allow a brief dip toward 26°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric factors heavily ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$26,569End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds strongly favor a 27°C low in Hong Kong on August 25, consistent with seasonal climatology where August nighttime minima average near 26–27°C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon and high humidity. Official HK Observatory guidance and short-range forecasts point to partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum near the upper end of the typical 25–28°C range. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in the latest HKO outlook further support this outcome, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could allow a brief dip toward 26°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric factors heavily ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,569End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds strongly favor a 27°C low in Hong Kong on August 25, consistent with seasonal climatology where August nighttime minima average near 26–27°C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon and high humidity. Official HK Observatory guidance and short-range forecasts point to partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling, keeping the daily minimum near the upper end of the typical 25–28°C range. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in the latest HKO outlook further support this outcome, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could allow a brief dip toward 26°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric factors heavily ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions