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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Aug 14

Aug 15

Aug 16

Aug 14

Aug 15

Aug 16

26°C 36%

27°C 31%

25°C 19%

28°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 36%

27°C 31%

25°C 19%

28°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

22°C or below

$420 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$302 Vol.

1%

24°C

$537 Vol.

2%

25°C

$467 Vol.

19%

26°C

$1,394 Vol.

36%

27°C

$1,797 Vol.

31%

28°C

$462 Vol.

7%

29°C

$721 Vol.

2%

30°C

$467 Vol.

1%

31°C

$125 Vol.

<1%

32°C or higher

$347 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models point to a daily minimum near 27°C on August 15, driven by a persistent southwesterly airstream, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling overnight. Typical August climatology shows overnight lows of 26–28°C, with urban heat island effects in the city often preventing deeper drops below 25°C. Model consensus favors stable conditions without strong frontal passages or typhoon influences that could shift temperatures lower, though slight variations in cloud cover or wind speed introduce uncertainty around the exact threshold. Trader positioning clusters tightly on 26–27°C as the most probable outcomes given these dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,037
End Date
Aug 15, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models point to a daily minimum near 27°C on August 15, driven by a persistent southwesterly airstream, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling overnight. Typical August climatology shows overnight lows of 26–28°C, with urban heat island effects in the city often preventing deeper drops below 25°C. Model consensus favors stable conditions without strong frontal passages or typhoon influences that could shift temperatures lower, though slight variations in cloud cover or wind speed introduce uncertainty around the exact threshold. Trader positioning clusters tightly on 26–27°C as the most probable outcomes given these dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,037
End Date
Aug 15, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 36%, followed by "27°C" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?" is "26°C" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.