Recent forecasts from official meteorological sources indicate a transition to clearer skies and lighter winds over Ankara on September 24 following showers on the 23rd, setting the stage for enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This favors minimum temperatures near 8°C, as surface heat loss accelerates with reduced cloud cover and dew point depressions around 5–7°C. Model consensus supports this range, though slight variations in timing of clearing or residual moisture could push the low above 10°C or below 6°C. With market-implied odds nearly even between extremes, traders appear focused on short-term model runs and local observations, where even modest shifts in wind or humidity thresholds can alter the overnight minimum by several degrees. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 24?
14°C or higher 43%
4°C or below 42%
6°C 40%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
4°C or below
42%
5°C
18%
6°C
40%
7°C
25%
8°C
22%
9°C
21%
10°C
21%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
14%
14°C or higher
43%
14°C or higher 43%
4°C or below 42%
6°C 40%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
42%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
22%
9°C
$0 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official meteorological sources indicate a transition to clearer skies and lighter winds over Ankara on September 24 following showers on the 23rd, setting the stage for enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This favors minimum temperatures near 8°C, as surface heat loss accelerates with reduced cloud cover and dew point depressions around 5–7°C. Model consensus supports this range, though slight variations in timing of clearing or residual moisture could push the low above 10°C or below 6°C. With market-implied odds nearly even between extremes, traders appear focused on short-term model runs and local observations, where even modest shifts in wind or humidity thresholds can alter the overnight minimum by several degrees. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official meteorological sources indicate a transition to clearer skies and lighter winds over Ankara on September 24 following showers on the 23rd, setting the stage for enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This favors minimum temperatures near 8°C, as surface heat loss accelerates with reduced cloud cover and dew point depressions around 5–7°C. Model consensus supports this range, though slight variations in timing of clearing or residual moisture could push the low above 10°C or below 6°C. With market-implied odds nearly even between extremes, traders appear focused on short-term model runs and local observations, where even modest shifts in wind or humidity thresholds can alter the overnight minimum by several degrees. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from official meteorological sources indicate a transition to clearer skies and lighter winds over Ankara on September 24 following showers on the 23rd, setting the stage for enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This favors minimum temperatures near 8°C, as surface heat loss accelerates with reduced cloud cover and dew point depressions around 5–7°C. Model consensus supports this range, though slight variations in timing of clearing or residual moisture could push the low above 10°C or below 6°C. With market-implied odds nearly even between extremes, traders appear focused on short-term model runs and local observations, where even modest shifts in wind or humidity thresholds can alter the overnight minimum by several degrees. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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