Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from 1.8% in May has tightened the contest between the 2.0-2.4% and ≤1.9% ranges, reflecting subsidy-driven energy relief and softer food costs that have pulled underlying readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for several months. Trader positioning remains split as the BOJ continues to highlight upside risks from yen depreciation, sustained wage gains, and corporate cost pass-through, even after trimming its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection. Key swing factors include the pace of energy subsidy phase-outs, crude oil price movements, and upcoming BOJ Outlook reports that could signal shifts in the expected rate path. With probabilities nearly even, resolution hinges on whether domestic demand-driven pressures reassert themselves or further disinflation takes hold through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 47%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
3.0-3.4% 1.4%
$36,295 Vol.
$36,295 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
47%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
1%
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 47%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
3.0-3.4% 1.4%
$36,295 Vol.
$36,295 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$11,052 Vol.
47%
2.0-2.4%
$14,873 Vol.
54%
2.5-2.9%
$8,295 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$601 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$657 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$817 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from 1.8% in May has tightened the contest between the 2.0-2.4% and ≤1.9% ranges, reflecting subsidy-driven energy relief and softer food costs that have pulled underlying readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for several months. Trader positioning remains split as the BOJ continues to highlight upside risks from yen depreciation, sustained wage gains, and corporate cost pass-through, even after trimming its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection. Key swing factors include the pace of energy subsidy phase-outs, crude oil price movements, and upcoming BOJ Outlook reports that could signal shifts in the expected rate path. With probabilities nearly even, resolution hinges on whether domestic demand-driven pressures reassert themselves or further disinflation takes hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$36,295End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from 1.8% in May has tightened the contest between the 2.0-2.4% and ≤1.9% ranges, reflecting subsidy-driven energy relief and softer food costs that have pulled underlying readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for several months. Trader positioning remains split as the BOJ continues to highlight upside risks from yen depreciation, sustained wage gains, and corporate cost pass-through, even after trimming its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection. Key swing factors include the pace of energy subsidy phase-outs, crude oil price movements, and upcoming BOJ Outlook reports that could signal shifts in the expected rate path. With probabilities nearly even, resolution hinges on whether domestic demand-driven pressures reassert themselves or further disinflation takes hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$36,295End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from 1.8% in May has tightened the contest between the 2.0-2.4% and ≤1.9% ranges, reflecting subsidy-driven energy relief and softer food costs that have pulled underlying readings below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for several months. Trader positioning remains split as the BOJ continues to highlight upside risks from yen depreciation, sustained wage gains, and corporate cost pass-through, even after trimming its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection. Key swing factors include the pace of energy subsidy phase-outs, crude oil price movements, and upcoming BOJ Outlook reports that could signal shifts in the expected rate path. With probabilities nearly even, resolution hinges on whether domestic demand-driven pressures reassert themselves or further disinflation takes hold through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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