Current forecast models from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate project a daytime high near 30–31°C in Zhengzhou on August 15 amid scattered clouds, light northeasterly winds, and a low risk of isolated late showers. These conditions reflect typical mid-August subtropical influences over the North China Plain, where peak solar insolation and limited cloud cover can support temperatures reaching or exceeding 32°C if convective development stays suppressed. Historical August averages near 30°C and recent overcast skies on the 14th contribute to model spread, explaining why trader-implied odds favor 32°C or higher at 42% while assigning substantial probability to 30–31°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the peak heating period will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 15?
Highest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 15?
32°C or higher 43%
30°C 28%
29°C 11%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
7%
27°C
4%
28°C
5%
29°C
11%
30°C
28%
31°C
30%
32°C or higher
43%
32°C or higher 43%
30°C 28%
29°C 11%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$21 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$11 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$11 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
7%
27°C
$15 Vol.
4%
28°C
$20 Vol.
5%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$1 Vol.
28%
31°C
$16 Vol.
30%
32°C or higher
$11 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate project a daytime high near 30–31°C in Zhengzhou on August 15 amid scattered clouds, light northeasterly winds, and a low risk of isolated late showers. These conditions reflect typical mid-August subtropical influences over the North China Plain, where peak solar insolation and limited cloud cover can support temperatures reaching or exceeding 32°C if convective development stays suppressed. Historical August averages near 30°C and recent overcast skies on the 14th contribute to model spread, explaining why trader-implied odds favor 32°C or higher at 42% while assigning substantial probability to 30–31°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the peak heating period will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$138End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate project a daytime high near 30–31°C in Zhengzhou on August 15 amid scattered clouds, light northeasterly winds, and a low risk of isolated late showers. These conditions reflect typical mid-August subtropical influences over the North China Plain, where peak solar insolation and limited cloud cover can support temperatures reaching or exceeding 32°C if convective development stays suppressed. Historical August averages near 30°C and recent overcast skies on the 14th contribute to model spread, explaining why trader-implied odds favor 32°C or higher at 42% while assigning substantial probability to 30–31°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the peak heating period will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$138End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate project a daytime high near 30–31°C in Zhengzhou on August 15 amid scattered clouds, light northeasterly winds, and a low risk of isolated late showers. These conditions reflect typical mid-August subtropical influences over the North China Plain, where peak solar insolation and limited cloud cover can support temperatures reaching or exceeding 32°C if convective development stays suppressed. Historical August averages near 30°C and recent overcast skies on the 14th contribute to model spread, explaining why trader-implied odds favor 32°C or higher at 42% while assigning substantial probability to 30–31°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the peak heating period will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions