Latest MetService forecasts indicate a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 15 under southerly flows, mostly cloudy skies, and possible morning showers, positioning 14°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability. Typical mid-August climatology shows highs near 13–14°C, and current numerical weather prediction runs exhibit narrow spread around this value with minimal potential for significant warming. The secondary 15°C outcome at 32.5% reflects residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing or slight model variations, while cooler 13°C scenarios at 13.5% would require stronger southerly advection. Traders weigh these short-range model outputs against historical resolution patterns from official observations, with limited upside beyond 16°C given persistent cool-season dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
14°C 45%
15°C 41%
13°C 10%
16°C 7%
NEW
$27,410 Vol.
NEW
$27,410 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
10%
14°C
45%
15°C
41%
16°C
7%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 45%
15°C 41%
13°C 10%
16°C 7%
NEW
$27,410 Vol.
NEW
$27,410 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,169 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,654 Vol.
2%
13°C
$5,053 Vol.
10%
14°C
$6,805 Vol.
45%
15°C
$4,466 Vol.
41%
16°C
$3,496 Vol.
7%
17°C
$1,666 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest MetService forecasts indicate a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 15 under southerly flows, mostly cloudy skies, and possible morning showers, positioning 14°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability. Typical mid-August climatology shows highs near 13–14°C, and current numerical weather prediction runs exhibit narrow spread around this value with minimal potential for significant warming. The secondary 15°C outcome at 32.5% reflects residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing or slight model variations, while cooler 13°C scenarios at 13.5% would require stronger southerly advection. Traders weigh these short-range model outputs against historical resolution patterns from official observations, with limited upside beyond 16°C given persistent cool-season dynamics.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$27,410End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest MetService forecasts indicate a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 15 under southerly flows, mostly cloudy skies, and possible morning showers, positioning 14°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability. Typical mid-August climatology shows highs near 13–14°C, and current numerical weather prediction runs exhibit narrow spread around this value with minimal potential for significant warming. The secondary 15°C outcome at 32.5% reflects residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing or slight model variations, while cooler 13°C scenarios at 13.5% would require stronger southerly advection. Traders weigh these short-range model outputs against historical resolution patterns from official observations, with limited upside beyond 16°C given persistent cool-season dynamics.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,410End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest MetService forecasts indicate a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 15 under southerly flows, mostly cloudy skies, and possible morning showers, positioning 14°C as the market leader at 49.5% implied probability. Typical mid-August climatology shows highs near 13–14°C, and current numerical weather prediction runs exhibit narrow spread around this value with minimal potential for significant warming. The secondary 15°C outcome at 32.5% reflects residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing or slight model variations, while cooler 13°C scenarios at 13.5% would require stronger southerly advection. Traders weigh these short-range model outputs against historical resolution patterns from official observations, with limited upside beyond 16°C given persistent cool-season dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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