Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models through mid-August position Warsaw’s August 15 maximum near 29–31 °C beneath building high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that advects warmer continental air. This pattern supports strong daytime insolation in mid-August, pushing temperatures 5–7 °C above the long-term average high of roughly 24 °C. Subtle model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any isolated convection that could shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and BBC currently aligns with a 29–30 °C outcome, reinforcing trader consensus that clusters implied probability heavily on 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow window. Updated model runs tonight will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 15?
30°C 47%
31°C 30%
29°C 12%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
47%
31°C
30%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 47%
31°C 30%
29°C 12%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$1,833 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$783 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$68 Vol.
1%
28°C
$432 Vol.
4%
29°C
$588 Vol.
12%
30°C
$3,704 Vol.
47%
31°C
$458 Vol.
30%
32°C
$370 Vol.
6%
33°C
$269 Vol.
2%
34°C
$157 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$302 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models through mid-August position Warsaw’s August 15 maximum near 29–31 °C beneath building high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that advects warmer continental air. This pattern supports strong daytime insolation in mid-August, pushing temperatures 5–7 °C above the long-term average high of roughly 24 °C. Subtle model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any isolated convection that could shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and BBC currently aligns with a 29–30 °C outcome, reinforcing trader consensus that clusters implied probability heavily on 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow window. Updated model runs tonight will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,965End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models through mid-August position Warsaw’s August 15 maximum near 29–31 °C beneath building high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that advects warmer continental air. This pattern supports strong daytime insolation in mid-August, pushing temperatures 5–7 °C above the long-term average high of roughly 24 °C. Subtle model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any isolated convection that could shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and BBC currently aligns with a 29–30 °C outcome, reinforcing trader consensus that clusters implied probability heavily on 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow window. Updated model runs tonight will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,965End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models through mid-August position Warsaw’s August 15 maximum near 29–31 °C beneath building high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that advects warmer continental air. This pattern supports strong daytime insolation in mid-August, pushing temperatures 5–7 °C above the long-term average high of roughly 24 °C. Subtle model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any isolated convection that could shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and BBC currently aligns with a 29–30 °C outcome, reinforcing trader consensus that clusters implied probability heavily on 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning low odds to extremes outside that narrow window. Updated model runs tonight will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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