Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a Warsaw maximum of 26–27°C for August 14 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection within stable high pressure. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing rapid cooling, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 70% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this range, consistent with the secondary 27°C outcome at 22.5%, while cooler or hotter thresholds remain low-probability outliers given the current synoptic setup and absence of significant frontal passages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
26°C 71%
27°C 19%
25°C 8%
28°C 2%
$20,239 Vol.
$20,239 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
8%
26°C
71%
27°C
19%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 71%
27°C 19%
25°C 8%
28°C 2%
$20,239 Vol.
$20,239 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$2,297 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,937 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$831 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$722 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,444 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,222 Vol.
8%
26°C
$3,964 Vol.
71%
27°C
$2,000 Vol.
19%
28°C
$2,026 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,262 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$533 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a Warsaw maximum of 26–27°C for August 14 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection within stable high pressure. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing rapid cooling, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 70% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this range, consistent with the secondary 27°C outcome at 22.5%, while cooler or hotter thresholds remain low-probability outliers given the current synoptic setup and absence of significant frontal passages.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$20,239End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a Warsaw maximum of 26–27°C for August 14 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection within stable high pressure. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing rapid cooling, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 70% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this range, consistent with the secondary 27°C outcome at 22.5%, while cooler or hotter thresholds remain low-probability outliers given the current synoptic setup and absence of significant frontal passages.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,239End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a Warsaw maximum of 26–27°C for August 14 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection within stable high pressure. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing rapid cooling, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 70% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this range, consistent with the secondary 27°C outcome at 22.5%, while cooler or hotter thresholds remain low-probability outliers given the current synoptic setup and absence of significant frontal passages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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