Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather place Tokyo’s August 15 high near 29–31 °C under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that can cap afternoon peaks. These model runs, combined with the city’s urban heat-island effect and a climatological normal of roughly 31 °C, anchor trader sentiment around the 30 °C outcome (36.5 %). Recent model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, with any deviation most likely tied to changes in cloud cover or timing of precipitation rather than broader atmospheric shifts, keeping probabilities for 28 °C or below and 32 °C or above below 10 %. Updated guidance issued within the next 24 hours will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
30°C 33%
29°C 26%
31°C 25%
32°C 9%
NEW
$17,287 Vol.
NEW
$17,287 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
26%
30°C
33%
31°C
25%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 33%
29°C 26%
31°C 25%
32°C 9%
NEW
$17,287 Vol.
NEW
$17,287 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
$404 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$557 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$974 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,874 Vol.
3%
28°C
$1,381 Vol.
7%
29°C
$4,325 Vol.
26%
30°C
$2,089 Vol.
33%
31°C
$1,817 Vol.
25%
32°C
$1,009 Vol.
9%
33°C
$1,054 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$802 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather place Tokyo’s August 15 high near 29–31 °C under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that can cap afternoon peaks. These model runs, combined with the city’s urban heat-island effect and a climatological normal of roughly 31 °C, anchor trader sentiment around the 30 °C outcome (36.5 %). Recent model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, with any deviation most likely tied to changes in cloud cover or timing of precipitation rather than broader atmospheric shifts, keeping probabilities for 28 °C or below and 32 °C or above below 10 %. Updated guidance issued within the next 24 hours will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,287End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather place Tokyo’s August 15 high near 29–31 °C under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that can cap afternoon peaks. These model runs, combined with the city’s urban heat-island effect and a climatological normal of roughly 31 °C, anchor trader sentiment around the 30 °C outcome (36.5 %). Recent model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, with any deviation most likely tied to changes in cloud cover or timing of precipitation rather than broader atmospheric shifts, keeping probabilities for 28 °C or below and 32 °C or above below 10 %. Updated guidance issued within the next 24 hours will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,287End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather place Tokyo’s August 15 high near 29–31 °C under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that can cap afternoon peaks. These model runs, combined with the city’s urban heat-island effect and a climatological normal of roughly 31 °C, anchor trader sentiment around the 30 °C outcome (36.5 %). Recent model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, with any deviation most likely tied to changes in cloud cover or timing of precipitation rather than broader atmospheric shifts, keeping probabilities for 28 °C or below and 32 °C or above below 10 %. Updated guidance issued within the next 24 hours will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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