Stable high-pressure systems and clear subtropical conditions over the eastern Mediterranean are positioning Tel Aviv for a typical mid-August maximum near 33°C on August 15, with light winds limiting marine moderation and minimal cloud cover enabling strong daytime heating. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and supporting models align on this range, consistent with climatological baselines of 30–32°C and recent observational trends showing no significant deviation. These factors explain the market-implied 66.5% probability for 33°C and 27% for 34°C, reflecting trader consensus on limited intensification potential absent unexpected moisture or circulation shifts. Updated official forecasts tomorrow morning represent the key near-term data point that could adjust positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 15?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 15?
33°C 69%
34°C 27%
32°C 6%
35°C 1.8%
NEW
$11,276 Vol.
NEW
$11,276 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
6%
33°C
69%
34°C
27%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 69%
34°C 27%
32°C 6%
35°C 1.8%
NEW
$11,276 Vol.
NEW
$11,276 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$486 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$901 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,187 Vol.
6%
33°C
$2,831 Vol.
69%
34°C
$1,218 Vol.
27%
35°C
$785 Vol.
2%
36°C
$923 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,167 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$835 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$288 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$654 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems and clear subtropical conditions over the eastern Mediterranean are positioning Tel Aviv for a typical mid-August maximum near 33°C on August 15, with light winds limiting marine moderation and minimal cloud cover enabling strong daytime heating. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and supporting models align on this range, consistent with climatological baselines of 30–32°C and recent observational trends showing no significant deviation. These factors explain the market-implied 66.5% probability for 33°C and 27% for 34°C, reflecting trader consensus on limited intensification potential absent unexpected moisture or circulation shifts. Updated official forecasts tomorrow morning represent the key near-term data point that could adjust positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,276End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems and clear subtropical conditions over the eastern Mediterranean are positioning Tel Aviv for a typical mid-August maximum near 33°C on August 15, with light winds limiting marine moderation and minimal cloud cover enabling strong daytime heating. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and supporting models align on this range, consistent with climatological baselines of 30–32°C and recent observational trends showing no significant deviation. These factors explain the market-implied 66.5% probability for 33°C and 27% for 34°C, reflecting trader consensus on limited intensification potential absent unexpected moisture or circulation shifts. Updated official forecasts tomorrow morning represent the key near-term data point that could adjust positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,276End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure systems and clear subtropical conditions over the eastern Mediterranean are positioning Tel Aviv for a typical mid-August maximum near 33°C on August 15, with light winds limiting marine moderation and minimal cloud cover enabling strong daytime heating. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and supporting models align on this range, consistent with climatological baselines of 30–32°C and recent observational trends showing no significant deviation. These factors explain the market-implied 66.5% probability for 33°C and 27% for 34°C, reflecting trader consensus on limited intensification potential absent unexpected moisture or circulation shifts. Updated official forecasts tomorrow morning represent the key near-term data point that could adjust positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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