**Recent forecast consensus from NOAA and GFS models supports the market's strong 98% implied probability on a 32°C high for Panama City, Florida, on September 7.** Late-summer atmospheric conditions—warm Gulf moisture, light southerly flow, and daytime heating—typically produce afternoon maxima near 31–33°C in the region, aligning with historical September averages around 32°C. Scattered thunderstorms and cloud build-up often cap peaks by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping readings from exceeding the upper threshold in most model runs. Traders appear to weigh official station data and short-range guidance heavily, viewing deviations as low-probability given current steering patterns. A stronger sea breeze, earlier or more intense convection, or measurement timing at the primary reporting site could still shift the recorded maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on September 7?
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 7?
32°C 99.5%
33°C or higher <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$21,405 Vol.
$21,405 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C or higher
1%
32°C 99.5%
33°C or higher <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$21,405 Vol.
$21,405 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
$179 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$181 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$436 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$416 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,715 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,657 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$5,633 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$5,517 Vol.
100%
33°C or higher
$2,907 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast consensus from NOAA and GFS models supports the market's strong 98% implied probability on a 32°C high for Panama City, Florida, on September 7.** Late-summer atmospheric conditions—warm Gulf moisture, light southerly flow, and daytime heating—typically produce afternoon maxima near 31–33°C in the region, aligning with historical September averages around 32°C. Scattered thunderstorms and cloud build-up often cap peaks by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping readings from exceeding the upper threshold in most model runs.
Traders appear to weigh official station data and short-range guidance heavily, viewing deviations as low-probability given current steering patterns. A stronger sea breeze, earlier or more intense convection, or measurement timing at the primary reporting site could still shift the recorded maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$21,405End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast consensus from NOAA and GFS models supports the market's strong 98% implied probability on a 32°C high for Panama City, Florida, on September 7.** Late-summer atmospheric conditions—warm Gulf moisture, light southerly flow, and daytime heating—typically produce afternoon maxima near 31–33°C in the region, aligning with historical September averages around 32°C. Scattered thunderstorms and cloud build-up often cap peaks by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping readings from exceeding the upper threshold in most model runs.
Traders appear to weigh official station data and short-range guidance heavily, viewing deviations as low-probability given current steering patterns. A stronger sea breeze, earlier or more intense convection, or measurement timing at the primary reporting site could still shift the recorded maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,405End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast consensus from NOAA and GFS models supports the market's strong 98% implied probability on a 32°C high for Panama City, Florida, on September 7.** Late-summer atmospheric conditions—warm Gulf moisture, light southerly flow, and daytime heating—typically produce afternoon maxima near 31–33°C in the region, aligning with historical September averages around 32°C. Scattered thunderstorms and cloud build-up often cap peaks by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping readings from exceeding the upper threshold in most model runs. Traders appear to weigh official station data and short-range guidance heavily, viewing deviations as low-probability given current steering patterns. A stronger sea breeze, earlier or more intense convection, or measurement timing at the primary reporting site could still shift the recorded maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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