**Forecast model consensus for Panama City, Panama, points to an overnight low near 26°C on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high humidity and extensive cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures close to the September climatological average of 24–25°C. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show no significant cold advection or clear-sky episodes that would allow greater drops, while scattered showers and light winds further moderate cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable tropical conditions against the modest 14.5% odds on 25°C, recognizing that any unexpected clearing could shift the minimum downward but that current guidance favors the narrow 25–27°C band dominating the probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Panama City on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Panama City on September 8?
26°C 56%
27°C 31%
25°C 15%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
13%
23°C
13%
24°C
9%
25°C
15%
26°C
56%
27°C
31%
28°C
9%
29°C
13%
30°C or higher
6%
26°C 56%
27°C 31%
25°C 15%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
21°C
$12 Vol.
1%
22°C
$12 Vol.
13%
23°C
$12 Vol.
13%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C
$51 Vol.
56%
27°C
$80 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
9%
29°C
$12 Vol.
13%
30°C or higher
$12 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus for Panama City, Panama, points to an overnight low near 26°C on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high humidity and extensive cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures close to the September climatological average of 24–25°C. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show no significant cold advection or clear-sky episodes that would allow greater drops, while scattered showers and light winds further moderate cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable tropical conditions against the modest 14.5% odds on 25°C, recognizing that any unexpected clearing could shift the minimum downward but that current guidance favors the narrow 25–27°C band dominating the probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$205End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus for Panama City, Panama, points to an overnight low near 26°C on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high humidity and extensive cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures close to the September climatological average of 24–25°C. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show no significant cold advection or clear-sky episodes that would allow greater drops, while scattered showers and light winds further moderate cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable tropical conditions against the modest 14.5% odds on 25°C, recognizing that any unexpected clearing could shift the minimum downward but that current guidance favors the narrow 25–27°C band dominating the probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$205End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model consensus for Panama City, Panama, points to an overnight low near 26°C on September 8, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high humidity and extensive cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures close to the September climatological average of 24–25°C. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show no significant cold advection or clear-sky episodes that would allow greater drops, while scattered showers and light winds further moderate cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable tropical conditions against the modest 14.5% odds on 25°C, recognizing that any unexpected clearing could shift the minimum downward but that current guidance favors the narrow 25–27°C band dominating the probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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