Recent National Meteorological Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance (GEM, GFS, ECMWF) indicate a daytime high of 25–27 °C for Mexico City on September 23, driven by warm southeasterly flow, limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours, and typical late-September high-pressure patterns over central Mexico. These conditions favor temperatures at or above 26 °C in several runs, supporting the market’s 65 % implied probability for that outcome while the 33 % chance for exactly 25 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any afternoon convection. Official observations from the prior day already reached 26 °C, reinforcing trader confidence ahead of tomorrow’s final model updates and real-time station readings that will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 23?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 23?
26°C or higher 65%
25°C 33%
24°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
$10,087 Vol.
NEW
$10,087 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
33%
26°C or higher
65%
26°C or higher 65%
25°C 33%
24°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
$10,087 Vol.
NEW
$10,087 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
16°C or below
$25 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$525 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$625 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$564 Vol.
2%
24°C
$2,206 Vol.
4%
25°C
$2,418 Vol.
33%
26°C or higher
$3,628 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Meteorological Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance (GEM, GFS, ECMWF) indicate a daytime high of 25–27 °C for Mexico City on September 23, driven by warm southeasterly flow, limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours, and typical late-September high-pressure patterns over central Mexico. These conditions favor temperatures at or above 26 °C in several runs, supporting the market’s 65 % implied probability for that outcome while the 33 % chance for exactly 25 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any afternoon convection. Official observations from the prior day already reached 26 °C, reinforcing trader confidence ahead of tomorrow’s final model updates and real-time station readings that will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,087End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Meteorological Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance (GEM, GFS, ECMWF) indicate a daytime high of 25–27 °C for Mexico City on September 23, driven by warm southeasterly flow, limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours, and typical late-September high-pressure patterns over central Mexico. These conditions favor temperatures at or above 26 °C in several runs, supporting the market’s 65 % implied probability for that outcome while the 33 % chance for exactly 25 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any afternoon convection. Official observations from the prior day already reached 26 °C, reinforcing trader confidence ahead of tomorrow’s final model updates and real-time station readings that will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,087End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Meteorological Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance (GEM, GFS, ECMWF) indicate a daytime high of 25–27 °C for Mexico City on September 23, driven by warm southeasterly flow, limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours, and typical late-September high-pressure patterns over central Mexico. These conditions favor temperatures at or above 26 °C in several runs, supporting the market’s 65 % implied probability for that outcome while the 33 % chance for exactly 25 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any afternoon convection. Official observations from the prior day already reached 26 °C, reinforcing trader confidence ahead of tomorrow’s final model updates and real-time station readings that will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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