Official forecasts from PAGASA indicate a 26–30°C range for Manila on August 26, driven by the active southwest monsoon (habagat), which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limits daytime heating. Typical August climatology shows average highs near 31°C, with urban heat island effects and variable rain intensity creating the narrow spread favoring 31–33°C outcomes. Recent model consensus and monsoon persistence support this positioning, while any breaks in cloud cover could briefly push readings toward 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty in a tropical wet-season environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 26?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 26?
32°C 41%
33°C 26%
31°C 21%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
6%
31°C
21%
32°C
41%
33°C
26%
34°C
5%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 41%
33°C 26%
31°C 21%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
26°C or below
$25 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$190 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$94 Vol.
1%
29°C
$51 Vol.
3%
30°C
$367 Vol.
6%
31°C
$690 Vol.
21%
32°C
$656 Vol.
41%
33°C
$268 Vol.
26%
34°C
$393 Vol.
5%
35°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$8 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA indicate a 26–30°C range for Manila on August 26, driven by the active southwest monsoon (habagat), which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limits daytime heating. Typical August climatology shows average highs near 31°C, with urban heat island effects and variable rain intensity creating the narrow spread favoring 31–33°C outcomes. Recent model consensus and monsoon persistence support this positioning, while any breaks in cloud cover could briefly push readings toward 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty in a tropical wet-season environment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$2,769End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA indicate a 26–30°C range for Manila on August 26, driven by the active southwest monsoon (habagat), which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limits daytime heating. Typical August climatology shows average highs near 31°C, with urban heat island effects and variable rain intensity creating the narrow spread favoring 31–33°C outcomes. Recent model consensus and monsoon persistence support this positioning, while any breaks in cloud cover could briefly push readings toward 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty in a tropical wet-season environment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,769End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from PAGASA indicate a 26–30°C range for Manila on August 26, driven by the active southwest monsoon (habagat), which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limits daytime heating. Typical August climatology shows average highs near 31°C, with urban heat island effects and variable rain intensity creating the narrow spread favoring 31–33°C outcomes. Recent model consensus and monsoon persistence support this positioning, while any breaks in cloud cover could briefly push readings toward 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of forecast uncertainty in a tropical wet-season environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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