PAGASA forecasts and monsoon patterns are the main drivers keeping Manila's August 16 maximum temperature centered near 29–30 °C in trader pricing. The southwest monsoon continues to deliver widespread cloud cover and scattered to heavy rainfall across Luzon, reducing solar insolation and limiting afternoon heating compared with clearer-sky conditions. Official outlooks show daily highs of 29–33 °C, yet persistent moisture and convective activity favor values at the lower end of that range, consistent with climatological August averages near 31 °C being tempered by seasonal rainfall. With resolution based on the official recorded peak, any shift in monsoon intensity or timing of showers over the next 48 hours could adjust the distribution among the closely matched 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 16?
30°C 40%
29°C 34%
31°C 15%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
7%
27°C
8%
28°C
15%
29°C
30%
30°C
33%
31°C
15%
32°C
10%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
30°C 40%
29°C 34%
31°C 15%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$49 Vol.
7%
27°C
$46 Vol.
8%
28°C
$3 Vol.
15%
29°C
$7 Vol.
30%
30°C
$8 Vol.
33%
31°C
$0 Vol.
15%
32°C
$1 Vol.
10%
33°C
$16 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts and monsoon patterns are the main drivers keeping Manila's August 16 maximum temperature centered near 29–30 °C in trader pricing. The southwest monsoon continues to deliver widespread cloud cover and scattered to heavy rainfall across Luzon, reducing solar insolation and limiting afternoon heating compared with clearer-sky conditions. Official outlooks show daily highs of 29–33 °C, yet persistent moisture and convective activity favor values at the lower end of that range, consistent with climatological August averages near 31 °C being tempered by seasonal rainfall. With resolution based on the official recorded peak, any shift in monsoon intensity or timing of showers over the next 48 hours could adjust the distribution among the closely matched 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$371End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts and monsoon patterns are the main drivers keeping Manila's August 16 maximum temperature centered near 29–30 °C in trader pricing. The southwest monsoon continues to deliver widespread cloud cover and scattered to heavy rainfall across Luzon, reducing solar insolation and limiting afternoon heating compared with clearer-sky conditions. Official outlooks show daily highs of 29–33 °C, yet persistent moisture and convective activity favor values at the lower end of that range, consistent with climatological August averages near 31 °C being tempered by seasonal rainfall. With resolution based on the official recorded peak, any shift in monsoon intensity or timing of showers over the next 48 hours could adjust the distribution among the closely matched 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$371End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA forecasts and monsoon patterns are the main drivers keeping Manila's August 16 maximum temperature centered near 29–30 °C in trader pricing. The southwest monsoon continues to deliver widespread cloud cover and scattered to heavy rainfall across Luzon, reducing solar insolation and limiting afternoon heating compared with clearer-sky conditions. Official outlooks show daily highs of 29–33 °C, yet persistent moisture and convective activity favor values at the lower end of that range, consistent with climatological August averages near 31 °C being tempered by seasonal rainfall. With resolution based on the official recorded peak, any shift in monsoon intensity or timing of showers over the next 48 hours could adjust the distribution among the closely matched 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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