**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Istanbul on September 22 stems from real-time meteorological observations confirming this as the daily maximum.** Official station data, including from Istanbul Atatürk Airport, recorded a peak near 23°C amid mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and northerly winds that suppressed further warming after midday. This aligns closely with September climatology, where the average daily maximum is approximately 23°C. Late-day cooling to the low 20s and teens under increasing cloud cover and precipitation eliminated upside risk. While minor station-to-station variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically shift the final figure, the convergence of multiple reports and the advanced hour of the day make such adjustments improbable, anchoring market-implied odds firmly at this level.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
23°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$62,861 Vol.
$62,861 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$62,861 Vol.
$62,861 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
$20 Vol.
No
18°C
$75 Vol.
No
19°C
$941 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,304 Vol.
No
21°C
$14,287 Vol.
No
22°C
$19,745 Vol.
No
23°C
$13,931 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$5,275 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,258 Vol.
No
26°C
$914 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$111 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Istanbul on September 22 stems from real-time meteorological observations confirming this as the daily maximum.**
Official station data, including from Istanbul Atatürk Airport, recorded a peak near 23°C amid mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and northerly winds that suppressed further warming after midday. This aligns closely with September climatology, where the average daily maximum is approximately 23°C. Late-day cooling to the low 20s and teens under increasing cloud cover and precipitation eliminated upside risk. While minor station-to-station variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically shift the final figure, the convergence of multiple reports and the advanced hour of the day make such adjustments improbable, anchoring market-implied odds firmly at this level.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$62,861End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Istanbul on September 22 stems from real-time meteorological observations confirming this as the daily maximum.**
Official station data, including from Istanbul Atatürk Airport, recorded a peak near 23°C amid mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and northerly winds that suppressed further warming after midday. This aligns closely with September climatology, where the average daily maximum is approximately 23°C. Late-day cooling to the low 20s and teens under increasing cloud cover and precipitation eliminated upside risk. While minor station-to-station variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically shift the final figure, the convergence of multiple reports and the advanced hour of the day make such adjustments improbable, anchoring market-implied odds firmly at this level.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$62,861End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Istanbul on September 22 stems from real-time meteorological observations confirming this as the daily maximum.** Official station data, including from Istanbul Atatürk Airport, recorded a peak near 23°C amid mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and northerly winds that suppressed further warming after midday. This aligns closely with September climatology, where the average daily maximum is approximately 23°C. Late-day cooling to the low 20s and teens under increasing cloud cover and precipitation eliminated upside risk. While minor station-to-station variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically shift the final figure, the convergence of multiple reports and the advanced hour of the day make such adjustments improbable, anchoring market-implied odds firmly at this level.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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