Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a maximum temperature near 32°C on August 15, 2026, under light rain and moderate northeasterly flow typical of the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and showers are expected to limit surface heating, while seasonal outlooks note normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 32°C reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2°C; clearer intervals or delayed convection would favor the higher end. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 34°C absent a significant shift in steering patterns or reduced moisture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
31°C 38%
32°C 31%
33°C 15%
30°C 13%
NEW
$30,261 Vol.
NEW
$30,261 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
4%
30°C
13%
31°C
38%
32°C
31%
33°C
15%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 38%
32°C 31%
33°C 15%
30°C 13%
NEW
$30,261 Vol.
NEW
$30,261 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$1,503 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,722 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,680 Vol.
4%
30°C
$3,309 Vol.
13%
31°C
$3,368 Vol.
38%
32°C
$2,510 Vol.
31%
33°C
$3,554 Vol.
15%
34°C
$4,153 Vol.
3%
35°C
$1,175 Vol.
1%
36°C
$618 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$669 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a maximum temperature near 32°C on August 15, 2026, under light rain and moderate northeasterly flow typical of the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and showers are expected to limit surface heating, while seasonal outlooks note normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 32°C reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2°C; clearer intervals or delayed convection would favor the higher end. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 34°C absent a significant shift in steering patterns or reduced moisture.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,261End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a maximum temperature near 32°C on August 15, 2026, under light rain and moderate northeasterly flow typical of the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and showers are expected to limit surface heating, while seasonal outlooks note normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 32°C reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2°C; clearer intervals or delayed convection would favor the higher end. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 34°C absent a significant shift in steering patterns or reduced moisture.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,261End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a maximum temperature near 32°C on August 15, 2026, under light rain and moderate northeasterly flow typical of the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and showers are expected to limit surface heating, while seasonal outlooks note normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 32°C reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, which can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2°C; clearer intervals or delayed convection would favor the higher end. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 34°C absent a significant shift in steering patterns or reduced moisture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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