Recent forecasts from NWS and other models point to a high near 76–82°F in Chicago on August 15, shaped by post-derecho cooling after the August 11 event that advected a fresher air mass into the region. Persistent easterly flow, lingering cloud cover, and a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms are limiting daytime heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal normals around 83°F. Model consensus shows modest warming potential if skies clear earlier than expected, supporting the market’s concentration on the 80–83°F bins while lower outcomes remain viable if marine influence or precipitation persists. Traders are closely watching the final overnight model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture ahead of the diurnal peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 33%
84-85°F 12%
78-79°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
33%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 33%
84-85°F 12%
78-79°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
$492 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$575 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$216 Vol.
10%
80-81°F
$805 Vol.
40%
82-83°F
$282 Vol.
33%
84-85°F
$375 Vol.
12%
86-87°F
$293 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$456 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$113 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$153 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$158 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NWS and other models point to a high near 76–82°F in Chicago on August 15, shaped by post-derecho cooling after the August 11 event that advected a fresher air mass into the region. Persistent easterly flow, lingering cloud cover, and a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms are limiting daytime heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal normals around 83°F. Model consensus shows modest warming potential if skies clear earlier than expected, supporting the market’s concentration on the 80–83°F bins while lower outcomes remain viable if marine influence or precipitation persists. Traders are closely watching the final overnight model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture ahead of the diurnal peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,919End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NWS and other models point to a high near 76–82°F in Chicago on August 15, shaped by post-derecho cooling after the August 11 event that advected a fresher air mass into the region. Persistent easterly flow, lingering cloud cover, and a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms are limiting daytime heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal normals around 83°F. Model consensus shows modest warming potential if skies clear earlier than expected, supporting the market’s concentration on the 80–83°F bins while lower outcomes remain viable if marine influence or precipitation persists. Traders are closely watching the final overnight model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture ahead of the diurnal peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,919End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NWS and other models point to a high near 76–82°F in Chicago on August 15, shaped by post-derecho cooling after the August 11 event that advected a fresher air mass into the region. Persistent easterly flow, lingering cloud cover, and a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms are limiting daytime heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal normals around 83°F. Model consensus shows modest warming potential if skies clear earlier than expected, supporting the market’s concentration on the 80–83°F bins while lower outcomes remain viable if marine influence or precipitation persists. Traders are closely watching the final overnight model runs and any updates to boundary-layer moisture ahead of the diurnal peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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