Recent forecasts from KNMI and European models indicate a peak of 33–34°C in Amsterdam on August 14 amid the fifth regional heatwave of 2026, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, southerly flow advecting subtropical air, and clear skies maximizing insolation. Traders have converged on these outcomes as ensemble guidance shows limited variability, with 34°C holding the highest implied probability due to consistent model runs projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold under light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, while any slight eastward shift in the ridge or increased boundary-layer moisture could cap readings at 33°C. Updated afternoon observations and final KNMI verification will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?
34°C 52%
33°C 26%
35°C 20%
32°C 7%
$64,515 Vol.
$64,515 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
7%
33°C
26%
34°C
52%
35°C
20%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 52%
33°C 26%
35°C 20%
32°C 7%
$64,515 Vol.
$64,515 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
28°C or below
$6,190 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,012 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,018 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$5,960 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$9,637 Vol.
7%
33°C
$10,074 Vol.
26%
34°C
$10,361 Vol.
52%
35°C
$6,953 Vol.
20%
36°C
$7,790 Vol.
2%
37°C
$1,210 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$1,311 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from KNMI and European models indicate a peak of 33–34°C in Amsterdam on August 14 amid the fifth regional heatwave of 2026, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, southerly flow advecting subtropical air, and clear skies maximizing insolation. Traders have converged on these outcomes as ensemble guidance shows limited variability, with 34°C holding the highest implied probability due to consistent model runs projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold under light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, while any slight eastward shift in the ridge or increased boundary-layer moisture could cap readings at 33°C. Updated afternoon observations and final KNMI verification will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$64,515End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from KNMI and European models indicate a peak of 33–34°C in Amsterdam on August 14 amid the fifth regional heatwave of 2026, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, southerly flow advecting subtropical air, and clear skies maximizing insolation. Traders have converged on these outcomes as ensemble guidance shows limited variability, with 34°C holding the highest implied probability due to consistent model runs projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold under light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, while any slight eastward shift in the ridge or increased boundary-layer moisture could cap readings at 33°C. Updated afternoon observations and final KNMI verification will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$64,515End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from KNMI and European models indicate a peak of 33–34°C in Amsterdam on August 14 amid the fifth regional heatwave of 2026, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, southerly flow advecting subtropical air, and clear skies maximizing insolation. Traders have converged on these outcomes as ensemble guidance shows limited variability, with 34°C holding the highest implied probability due to consistent model runs projecting afternoon maxima near that threshold under light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, while any slight eastward shift in the ridge or increased boundary-layer moisture could cap readings at 33°C. Updated afternoon observations and final KNMI verification will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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