Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5, currently lead Humanity's Last Exam with scores around 55-65% on independent leaderboards, driven by targeted advances in adaptive reasoning, chain-of-thought techniques, and max-effort inference modes. This marks a sharp rise from single-digit results in early 2025 as frontier labs scale large language models with improved benchmarks in expert-level science, math, and multi-step problem solving. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3 series trail closely, while Meta and others push competitive releases. Traders price in continued gains through year-end model iterations, though saturation risks and architectural limits create uncertainty around crossing 65%+ thresholds before December 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,555 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
57%
65%+
29%
70%+
18%
75%+
9%
80%+
8%
90%+
8%
$26,555 Vol.
60%+
$14,806 Vol.
57%
65%+
$4,473 Vol.
29%
70%+
$2,817 Vol.
18%
75%+
$2,056 Vol.
9%
80%+
$1,151 Vol.
8%
90%+
$1,252 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5, currently lead Humanity's Last Exam with scores around 55-65% on independent leaderboards, driven by targeted advances in adaptive reasoning, chain-of-thought techniques, and max-effort inference modes. This marks a sharp rise from single-digit results in early 2025 as frontier labs scale large language models with improved benchmarks in expert-level science, math, and multi-step problem solving. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3 series trail closely, while Meta and others push competitive releases. Traders price in continued gains through year-end model iterations, though saturation risks and architectural limits create uncertainty around crossing 65%+ thresholds before December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$26,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5, currently lead Humanity's Last Exam with scores around 55-65% on independent leaderboards, driven by targeted advances in adaptive reasoning, chain-of-thought techniques, and max-effort inference modes. This marks a sharp rise from single-digit results in early 2025 as frontier labs scale large language models with improved benchmarks in expert-level science, math, and multi-step problem solving. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3 series trail closely, while Meta and others push competitive releases. Traders price in continued gains through year-end model iterations, though saturation risks and architectural limits create uncertainty around crossing 65%+ thresholds before December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$26,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's latest Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5, currently lead Humanity's Last Exam with scores around 55-65% on independent leaderboards, driven by targeted advances in adaptive reasoning, chain-of-thought techniques, and max-effort inference modes. This marks a sharp rise from single-digit results in early 2025 as frontier labs scale large language models with improved benchmarks in expert-level science, math, and multi-step problem solving. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 3 series trail closely, while Meta and others push competitive releases. Traders price in continued gains through year-end model iterations, though saturation risks and architectural limits create uncertainty around crossing 65%+ thresholds before December 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
93%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
43%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
74%
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Frequently Asked Questions