Anthropic’s Claude models currently lead the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% and Claude Opus 5 at 54.9% as of mid-August 2026, driven by iterative releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning, extended “thinking” modes, and tool integration that have lifted scores from the low-40% range earlier in the year. Key catalysts include the April 2026 Claude Mythos Preview, which delivered sharp gains on HLE and related benchmarks, alongside ongoing refinements in the Opus and Fable lines. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models remains a factor, though Anthropic holds the edge on this expert-level 2,500-question benchmark. Traders are watching for additional Claude releases or benchmark updates before year-end that could push the highest 2026 score past key thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$52,443 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
74%
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51%
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15%
70%+
9%
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6%
$52,443 Vol.
55%+
$11,457 Vol.
74%
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$20,944 Vol.
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65%+
$16,592 Vol.
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$2,447 Vol.
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$1,004 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude models currently lead the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% and Claude Opus 5 at 54.9% as of mid-August 2026, driven by iterative releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning, extended “thinking” modes, and tool integration that have lifted scores from the low-40% range earlier in the year. Key catalysts include the April 2026 Claude Mythos Preview, which delivered sharp gains on HLE and related benchmarks, alongside ongoing refinements in the Opus and Fable lines. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models remains a factor, though Anthropic holds the edge on this expert-level 2,500-question benchmark. Traders are watching for additional Claude releases or benchmark updates before year-end that could push the highest 2026 score past key thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$52,443End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude models currently lead the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% and Claude Opus 5 at 54.9% as of mid-August 2026, driven by iterative releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning, extended “thinking” modes, and tool integration that have lifted scores from the low-40% range earlier in the year. Key catalysts include the April 2026 Claude Mythos Preview, which delivered sharp gains on HLE and related benchmarks, alongside ongoing refinements in the Opus and Fable lines. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models remains a factor, though Anthropic holds the edge on this expert-level 2,500-question benchmark. Traders are watching for additional Claude releases or benchmark updates before year-end that could push the highest 2026 score past key thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$52,443End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude models currently lead the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboard, with Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% and Claude Opus 5 at 54.9% as of mid-August 2026, driven by iterative releases emphasizing adaptive reasoning, extended “thinking” modes, and tool integration that have lifted scores from the low-40% range earlier in the year. Key catalysts include the April 2026 Claude Mythos Preview, which delivered sharp gains on HLE and related benchmarks, alongside ongoing refinements in the Opus and Fable lines. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models remains a factor, though Anthropic holds the edge on this expert-level 2,500-question benchmark. Traders are watching for additional Claude releases or benchmark updates before year-end that could push the highest 2026 score past key thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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