Meta's current frontier models, including Muse Spark variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-40s to low-60s percent range on August 2026 leaderboards, trailing Claude Opus 5 and similar systems by several points on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Traders are pricing the 55%+ bucket as the leading outcome because Meta continues rapid iteration on large language models and multimodal reasoning, with competitive pressure from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google likely to accelerate internal targets for capability gains before year-end. Key swing factors include the timing and scale of any 2026 model launches or fine-tuning advances, as HLE's graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturation for open-weight or closed Meta releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,840 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
43%
60%+
15%
65%+
20%
70%+
6%
$10,840 Vol.
55%+
$7,693 Vol.
43%
60%+
$1,291 Vol.
15%
65%+
$1,116 Vol.
20%
70%+
$738 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta's current frontier models, including Muse Spark variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-40s to low-60s percent range on August 2026 leaderboards, trailing Claude Opus 5 and similar systems by several points on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Traders are pricing the 55%+ bucket as the leading outcome because Meta continues rapid iteration on large language models and multimodal reasoning, with competitive pressure from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google likely to accelerate internal targets for capability gains before year-end. Key swing factors include the timing and scale of any 2026 model launches or fine-tuning advances, as HLE's graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturation for open-weight or closed Meta releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$10,840End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta's current frontier models, including Muse Spark variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-40s to low-60s percent range on August 2026 leaderboards, trailing Claude Opus 5 and similar systems by several points on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Traders are pricing the 55%+ bucket as the leading outcome because Meta continues rapid iteration on large language models and multimodal reasoning, with competitive pressure from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google likely to accelerate internal targets for capability gains before year-end. Key swing factors include the timing and scale of any 2026 model launches or fine-tuning advances, as HLE's graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturation for open-weight or closed Meta releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$10,840End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's current frontier models, including Muse Spark variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-40s to low-60s percent range on August 2026 leaderboards, trailing Claude Opus 5 and similar systems by several points on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Traders are pricing the 55%+ bucket as the leading outcome because Meta continues rapid iteration on large language models and multimodal reasoning, with competitive pressure from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google likely to accelerate internal targets for capability gains before year-end. Key swing factors include the timing and scale of any 2026 model launches or fine-tuning advances, as HLE's graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturation for open-weight or closed Meta releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
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Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
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Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
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Frequently Asked Questions