OpenAI’s latest frontier models, including GPT-5.6 Sol, currently post around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 at 55%+ according to August 2026 leaderboards from Artificial Analysis and similar evaluators. This gap reflects Anthropic’s recent emphasis on adaptive reasoning and max-effort inference techniques that have lifted scores across expert-level domains in math, science, and humanities. OpenAI has narrowed the deficit through successive GPT-5 variants and post-training optimizations since early 2025, when even its strongest systems scored in the single digits. With roughly four months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution, traders are watching for any new OpenAI release or inference-time scaling that could push its top score higher before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation and competitive pressure from Google DeepMind and Meta could influence the final recorded peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$29,390 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
89%
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53%
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28%
65%+
9%
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6%
$29,390 Vol.
50%+
$4,838 Vol.
89%
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$12,992 Vol.
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$6,878 Vol.
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$2,810 Vol.
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$1,872 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s latest frontier models, including GPT-5.6 Sol, currently post around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 at 55%+ according to August 2026 leaderboards from Artificial Analysis and similar evaluators. This gap reflects Anthropic’s recent emphasis on adaptive reasoning and max-effort inference techniques that have lifted scores across expert-level domains in math, science, and humanities. OpenAI has narrowed the deficit through successive GPT-5 variants and post-training optimizations since early 2025, when even its strongest systems scored in the single digits. With roughly four months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution, traders are watching for any new OpenAI release or inference-time scaling that could push its top score higher before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation and competitive pressure from Google DeepMind and Meta could influence the final recorded peak.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$29,390End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s latest frontier models, including GPT-5.6 Sol, currently post around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 at 55%+ according to August 2026 leaderboards from Artificial Analysis and similar evaluators. This gap reflects Anthropic’s recent emphasis on adaptive reasoning and max-effort inference techniques that have lifted scores across expert-level domains in math, science, and humanities. OpenAI has narrowed the deficit through successive GPT-5 variants and post-training optimizations since early 2025, when even its strongest systems scored in the single digits. With roughly four months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution, traders are watching for any new OpenAI release or inference-time scaling that could push its top score higher before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation and competitive pressure from Google DeepMind and Meta could influence the final recorded peak.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$29,390End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s latest frontier models, including GPT-5.6 Sol, currently post around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 at 55%+ according to August 2026 leaderboards from Artificial Analysis and similar evaluators. This gap reflects Anthropic’s recent emphasis on adaptive reasoning and max-effort inference techniques that have lifted scores across expert-level domains in math, science, and humanities. OpenAI has narrowed the deficit through successive GPT-5 variants and post-training optimizations since early 2025, when even its strongest systems scored in the single digits. With roughly four months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution, traders are watching for any new OpenAI release or inference-time scaling that could push its top score higher before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation and competitive pressure from Google DeepMind and Meta could influence the final recorded peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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