OpenAI's GPT-5 series and reasoning-focused variants like GPT-5.6 Sol have driven recent gains on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level expertise across math, sciences, and specialized domains. Trader sentiment centers on OpenAI's iterative releases and scaling of large language models, which lifted scores from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-40s or higher by mid-2026. Anthropic's Claude models currently lead leaderboards at 55%+, creating competitive pressure, while HLE's rolling updates and expert-vetted questions add uncertainty around exact thresholds. Key catalysts ahead include potential new OpenAI model drops and further reasoning enhancements before year-end, with market-implied odds reflecting strong consensus on crossing 50% but more contested views above 55%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
70%
55%+
46%
60%+
28%
65%+
9%
70%+
6%
$28,041 Vol.
50%+
$3,846 Vol.
70%
55%+
$12,672 Vol.
46%
60%+
$6,868 Vol.
28%
65%+
$2,800 Vol.
9%
70%+
$1,856 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI's GPT-5 series and reasoning-focused variants like GPT-5.6 Sol have driven recent gains on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level expertise across math, sciences, and specialized domains. Trader sentiment centers on OpenAI's iterative releases and scaling of large language models, which lifted scores from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-40s or higher by mid-2026. Anthropic's Claude models currently lead leaderboards at 55%+, creating competitive pressure, while HLE's rolling updates and expert-vetted questions add uncertainty around exact thresholds. Key catalysts ahead include potential new OpenAI model drops and further reasoning enhancements before year-end, with market-implied odds reflecting strong consensus on crossing 50% but more contested views above 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$28,041End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI's GPT-5 series and reasoning-focused variants like GPT-5.6 Sol have driven recent gains on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level expertise across math, sciences, and specialized domains. Trader sentiment centers on OpenAI's iterative releases and scaling of large language models, which lifted scores from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-40s or higher by mid-2026. Anthropic's Claude models currently lead leaderboards at 55%+, creating competitive pressure, while HLE's rolling updates and expert-vetted questions add uncertainty around exact thresholds. Key catalysts ahead include potential new OpenAI model drops and further reasoning enhancements before year-end, with market-implied odds reflecting strong consensus on crossing 50% but more contested views above 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$28,041End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's GPT-5 series and reasoning-focused variants like GPT-5.6 Sol have driven recent gains on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level expertise across math, sciences, and specialized domains. Trader sentiment centers on OpenAI's iterative releases and scaling of large language models, which lifted scores from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-40s or higher by mid-2026. Anthropic's Claude models currently lead leaderboards at 55%+, creating competitive pressure, while HLE's rolling updates and expert-vetted questions add uncertainty around exact thresholds. Key catalysts ahead include potential new OpenAI model drops and further reasoning enhancements before year-end, with market-implied odds reflecting strong consensus on crossing 50% but more contested views above 55%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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