Moonshot AI’s recent July 2026 launch of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model with native vision and extended context, represents the main near-term driver for its Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) performance. Earlier Kimi variants, including agentic releases like Kimi-Researcher, reached independent scores in the mid-to-high 20s on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, while self-reported figures for K2 showed notable gaps versus third-party verification. K3 placed competitively overall but trails leaders such as Claude Opus 5 (around 65%) on current HLE leaderboards. Traders are watching further fine-tuning, new agentic modes, and any 2026 follow-on models, as rapid iteration by Chinese labs and benchmark saturation dynamics could shift the highest Kimi score before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,297 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
96%
50%+
43%
55%+
33%
60%+
13%
65%+
5%
$12,297 Vol.
45%+
$3,523 Vol.
96%
50%+
$6,492 Vol.
43%
55%+
$272 Vol.
33%
60%+
$1,566 Vol.
13%
65%+
$444 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s recent July 2026 launch of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model with native vision and extended context, represents the main near-term driver for its Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) performance. Earlier Kimi variants, including agentic releases like Kimi-Researcher, reached independent scores in the mid-to-high 20s on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, while self-reported figures for K2 showed notable gaps versus third-party verification. K3 placed competitively overall but trails leaders such as Claude Opus 5 (around 65%) on current HLE leaderboards. Traders are watching further fine-tuning, new agentic modes, and any 2026 follow-on models, as rapid iteration by Chinese labs and benchmark saturation dynamics could shift the highest Kimi score before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$12,297End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s recent July 2026 launch of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model with native vision and extended context, represents the main near-term driver for its Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) performance. Earlier Kimi variants, including agentic releases like Kimi-Researcher, reached independent scores in the mid-to-high 20s on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, while self-reported figures for K2 showed notable gaps versus third-party verification. K3 placed competitively overall but trails leaders such as Claude Opus 5 (around 65%) on current HLE leaderboards. Traders are watching further fine-tuning, new agentic modes, and any 2026 follow-on models, as rapid iteration by Chinese labs and benchmark saturation dynamics could shift the highest Kimi score before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$12,297End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s recent July 2026 launch of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model with native vision and extended context, represents the main near-term driver for its Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) performance. Earlier Kimi variants, including agentic releases like Kimi-Researcher, reached independent scores in the mid-to-high 20s on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, while self-reported figures for K2 showed notable gaps versus third-party verification. K3 placed competitively overall but trails leaders such as Claude Opus 5 (around 65%) on current HLE leaderboards. Traders are watching further fine-tuning, new agentic modes, and any 2026 follow-on models, as rapid iteration by Chinese labs and benchmark saturation dynamics could shift the highest Kimi score before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions